Vietnam's tourism sector to prioritize quality and value-added growth over visitor numbers

Q1 2026, the sector welcomed more than 6.7 million international visitors and about 37 million domestic visitors, with total revenue of 267 trillion dong. This is a positive growth, but with external headwinds. Fuel prices rose due to geopolitical tensions increasing airline costs, while the global tightening of spending began to affect travel behavior. Director Nguyen Trung Khanh acknowledges that although the Middle East market accounts for a small share, the indirect impacts on consumer sentiment and business activity are quite evident. This implies a paradox: visitor numbers continue to rise, but spending capacity does not necessarily increase correspondingly. At a meeting on growth scenarios and key tasks and solutions for 2026 and the 2026-2031 period, based on analysis of favorable and challenging factors, the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) has built two growth scenarios for 2026. Global trend of consumer spending tightening begins to affect travel behavior. In the high scenario, with international conditions stabilizing early, conflicts controlled, and supportive measures effective, the sector aims to achieve government targets: 25 million international visitors, 150 million domestic visitors, and total revenue of 1,125 trillion dong. Among them, Q1 achieved over 6.7 million international visitors and 37 million domestic visitors. Q2 is projected to about 5.6 million international visitors and 44 million domestic visitors. Q3 is expected to reach 5.6 million international visitors and 45 million domestic visitors. Q4 is expected to reach about 7 million international visitors and 24 million domestic visitors. In the low scenario, if geopolitical conflicts persist, the global economy continues to deteriorate or natural disasters and pandemics occur, the sector is projected to reach about 22.5 million international visitors and 130 million domestic visitors. Accordingly, Q2 is expected to around 5 million international visitors and 35 million domestic visitors; Q3 around 4.8 million international visitors and 35 million domestic visitors; Q4 around 5.9 million international visitors and 23 million domestic visitors. For the 2026-2031 period, VNAT builds three growth scenarios. The cautious scenario sets international tourist growth at about 8-10% per year, reaching about 35-38 million by 2030. The base scenario yields 12-15% annually, aiming for 40-45 million international visitors by 2030. In the high-growth scenario, with breakthroughs in visa, aviation, and digital transformation, international visitors could grow 15-18% annually, targeting 45-50 million by 2030. To realize these targets, the Director says the sector will implement concurrently a set of immediate, mid-term, and long-term tasks. VNAT also recommends removing bottlenecks in product development, especially travel tied to cultural industries, golf tourism, cruise tourism, river tourism, development of national tourism zones, and cross-border areas; it also proposes studying amendments to regulations related to organizing international conferences and seminars to ease difficulties for MICE tourism and large delegations combining conferences and events. Commenting, Deputy Minister Ho An Phong emphasized a pivotal requirement: tourism cannot continue to develop horizontally as in the post-pandemic recovery phase. “What matters is not only how many visitors, but the level of spending, length of stay, spillover to other industries, and the actual contribution to GDP,” the deputy minister stressed. In a context where growth headroom from quantity is narrowing, growth must be based on quality and value-added. In other words, with the same number of visitors, extending stay by one day and increasing spending on accommodation, entertainment, culture, and shopping yields far greater economic impact than simply chasing visitor numbers. From that orientation, the ministry leadership called for a strong restructuring of the product system toward high-quality segments, increasing the share of 4-5 star accommodations, advancing premium resorts, quality entertainment, health tourism, and value-added services. This approach not only helps raise revenue but also reduces pressure on the environment, infrastructure, and destination resources. Tourism cannot continue to develop horizontally as in the post-pandemic recovery. An important point highlighted by the deputy minister is building a new statistical index for the sector that fully reflects its real contribution to the economy. It should measure not only accommodation revenue but also spillover values to aviation, transport, telecommunications, finance, retail, real estate, food and beverage, and related services. The deputy minister believes that only when tourism’s contribution to GDP is fully quantified can growth be managed and steered scientifically. A notable change is tying growth responsibility to each locality. “Tourism activity does not occur at the central government level but at the destination,” the deputy minister stated, calling for concrete KPIs for each locality. This implies competition not only among nations but also among provinces within the same country. Alongside traditional drivers, digital transformation is identified as a breakthrough. According to ministry leaders, if we do not leverage the mid-term public investment window to build large projects for smart tourism, the sector may miss opportunities for years to come. Building a data-ecosystem, destination-management platform, market-forecasting system, and digital promotion will determine Vietnam’s tourism competitiveness in the new phase.