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VN-Index is pausing ahead of the holiday as liquidity declined and cash flow became more cautious. Several securities firms said the index is testing key levels and that a pullback may be needed to form a new price base.
Tien Phong Securities (TPS) said the index is turning down amid weak liquidity as it tests the 1,900–1,920 point zone. TPS highlighted a Bearish Engulfing pattern, which it described as a signal often linked to a short-term reversal.
TPS added that after a rally led by large-cap groups, the lack of liquidity support raises the risk of correction. The firm’s scenario suggests the VN-Index could retreat to the 1,687–1,706 range to re-establish balance. TPS therefore prefers investors hold a medium-to-high cash position and limit opening new positions.
Shinhan Vietnam Securities (SSV) said the VN-Index remains within the 1,680–1,860 range. It noted that the recent uptick was mainly driven by the VIC group, while many other groups have not kept pace. SSV’s approach favors stock-picking at lower price levels, with expectations of positive Q1 earnings for banks, real estate, or steel, rather than chasing groups that have already surged.
Phu Hung Securities (PHS) said the rally is stalling as the VN-Index approaches 1,880. It pointed to a sharp fall in liquidity, indicating more cautious cash. PHS also flagged risk from the Vingroup group after a rapid rally, warning that it could weigh on the index if other groups do not lift it. PHS added that RSI has turned down from overbought territory, suggesting momentum is weakening and increasing the likelihood of a test near 1,800.
PHS said investors should maintain their position and increase exposure only when there is clear recovery supported by liquidity, while being ready to reduce holdings if signs of support breakdown appear.
Thien Viet Securities (TVS) warned that selling pressure in the Vingroup group (VIC, VHM) could spread to other groups. TVS said it remains cautious, advising against new buys and instead monitoring developments in the coming sessions.
TVS said the market may find balance around 1,830–1,840.
VCBS noted that RSI and CMF have turned down, reflecting weak demand and narrower liquidity. VCBS expects the VN-Index to regain balance around 1,830–1,840, with resistance nearby at 1,890–1,910. It said current volatility is normal as the market nears its peak and enters the holiday period.
VCBS added that liquidity is diverging and is focusing on stocks with positive Q1 earnings or a compelling story. It suggested investors may consider deploying on pullbacks in real estate, construction, and banking.
Asean Securities (Aseansc) said the market may continue to swing as it reacts to the historic high around 1,900. It added that liquidity has eased slightly, suggesting cautious sentiment is returning. Aseansc cited nearby support around 1,750 and said short-term investors may consider partial purchases during pullbacks, preferably in stocks with an uptrend.
Overall, firms emphasized that the market lacks consensus and that clearer signals are needed, particularly as the index reacts to the 1,900 area and liquidity remains uneven.
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