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The VN-Index has approached the upper end of its recent trading range, prompting brokerage firms to warn that downside risk could emerge as the index nears 1,850–1,860 points. Several recommend avoiding chasing purchases, maintaining safe portfolio weights, and waiting for clearer recovery signals or pullbacks.
Phu Hung Securities (PHS) said the VN-Index ended the week with a Shooting Star candlestick near 1,850, suggesting the rally is stalling. Liquidity declined, reflecting cautious demand at higher price levels. PHS also noted that recent gains were led mainly by heavyweight stocks rather than broad-based participation across the market.
PHS highlighted the Vingroup group as the dominant force. If the group corrects, pressure could spill into other sectors and weigh on overall sentiment. Without improved breadth, PHS expects 1,850 to remain a resistance area and sees correction risk toward 1,760–1,800.
PHS recommended investors continue holding while limiting average-cost buying. Exposure should be increased only when there are clear recovery signals alongside improving liquidity. If stocks lose support, PHS advised actively reducing positions. The groups to monitor include banks, consumer staples, securities, infrastructure, and real estate.
Shinhan Vietnam (SSV) reported the VN-Index closed the week at 1,817.1 points, up 3.84%, with liquidity stable. However, SSV said foreign investors remained net sellers, concentrated in VHM and FPT. SSV warned that downside pressure could intensify as the index approaches 1,860.
SSV placed support around 1,800, with a further level at 1,680. It characterized the primary trend as range-bound and advised investors not to chase. SSV suggested favoring domestic-driven groups such as banks, building materials, securities, and companies with solid Q1 earnings growth, while noting real estate shows signs of renewed cash flow after a period of deep discounts.
VPBank said the VN-Index is approaching the historical high and the upper bound of the uptrend that has lasted since late 2022. It expects more volatility next week as a base around 1,800 is formed. VPBank also noted the possibility of capital rotation into deeply discounted groups and suggested staggering buy-ins to capture the rotation.
TPS said the market cooled slightly, while selling pressure increased toward the close and liquidity declined, indicating weakening demand at the resistance level. Although the uptrend remains intact, TPS said momentum has slowed and volatility could rise if funds do not improve. If a correction occurs, TPS cited near-term support around 1,740 and deeper support around 1,668.
TPS recommended limiting chasing, taking partial profits, and waiting to re-enter on dips in stocks that still have favorable accumulation structures.
TVS said the VN-Index declined modestly mainly due to selling pressure on Vingroup stocks, especially VIC, which remains near a historical high. TVS noted buying interest in other leading groups has not clearly improved. It added that some stocks with expected Q1 earnings growth have risen, helping limit the decline.
TVS cautioned that the market shows similarities to previous sharp correction phases and advised maintaining safe allocation while monitoring developments closely, particularly the Vingroup group. For the short term, it recommended avoiding new buying.
VCBS said technical indicators such as RSI and MACD remain positive, suggesting buyers have not lost control. However, it also observed selling pressure emerging, which could lead to choppy trading. VCBS recommended maintaining safe weight and avoiding chasing stocks that have run up or are approaching resistance, suggesting investors wait for pullbacks to size in gradually, especially in banking and consumer sectors.
Asean Securities said the VN-Index continues to form a weekly green candle with stable liquidity, indicating improving sentiment. It suggested a short-term rebound could continue as the index reacts around mid-term support. Asean Securities cited support around 1,750 and resistance at 1,900, and said short-term investors may deploy gradually on pullbacks, prioritizing sectors in the uptrend such as real estate, banks, securities, and retail.
BSC said the VN-Index fluctuated in a 1,812–1,847 range before closing at 1,817.17, down slightly by nearly 3 points. It reported breadth remained balanced with 11 of 18 sectors higher. Retail, energy, and information technology rose, while travel and entertainment declined.
BSC also noted foreign flow was net-buy on HOSE but net-seller on other exchanges. It concluded that the near-term rally has cooled and the market needs more time to find a new balance.
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