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The satellite internet sector has delivered a dramatic ride for investors as companies pitch a future economy powered by space. Space-economy stocks have surged amid growing hype, with AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) among the standout performers.
Over the last three years, AST SpaceMobile’s shares have risen by more than 1,000%. The company currently generates little revenue, but investors are focused on its plan to use giant BlueBird satellites to enable satellite internet connectivity directly to smartphones. AST SpaceMobile is set to unveil its commercial capabilities in 2026, assuming execution stays on track.
AST SpaceMobile’s core proposition is that its BlueBird satellites can connect directly to a smartphone, without requiring a separate terminal. The company contrasts this approach with Starlink’s model, which relies on a terminal for service.
Supporters argue that direct-to-phone connectivity could expand the addressable market for mobile internet worldwide. The pitch emphasizes fast internet without relying on WiFi, cell towers, or other on-earth infrastructure, positioning the service as a potential industry shift.
Major telecommunications providers have partnered with AST SpaceMobile, including Verizon Communications. In the company’s envisioned rollout, cellphone carriers would include AST SpaceMobile’s service within existing plans or offer it as an add-on subscription, with revenue shared between AST SpaceMobile and its partners.
If launches proceed as planned and all BlueBird satellites are placed into orbit by the end of 2026, AST SpaceMobile would target coverage across the United States, continental Europe, and Japan. That would position the company to reach hundreds of millions of existing internet users.
Despite revenue of under $20 million today, the article outlines a scenario in which AST SpaceMobile could generate $1 billion or more in sales within five years. One example cited is $5 in monthly revenue across 10 million customers, which would translate to $600 million in annual sales from initial target markets within that timeframe.
However, the article also notes that AST SpaceMobile’s stock price already reflects growth expectations that go beyond this kind of outcome.
AST SpaceMobile’s current market capitalization is around $24 billion, and the article points to additional shareholder dilution as a near-term concern.
The company is also described as burning substantial free cash flow—almost $1 billion over the last 12 months. The implication is that expenses could remain high even if revenue rises into the hundreds of millions, with profitability still uncertain.
Taking the factors together—high cash burn, expected dilution, and a stock price that already anticipates significant growth—the article concludes that AST SpaceMobile’s stock is likely to be flat or down significantly five years from now.
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