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The current week is shaping up to be the most important of the half-year for the crypto market. While Bitcoin and XRP recorded ETF inflows in April—$2.44 billion and $81.63 million respectively—investors are facing a “perfect storm.” Macroeconomic data and seasonality factors may either confirm the digital assets’ appeal or erase the entire spring growth.
First in line is the FOMC meeting on April 29, taking place against the backdrop of March PCE at 2.8%. The article characterizes this as “sticky” inflation that gives the regulator no reason to cut rates.
According to the minutes, the Fed has taken the most neutral stance possible, shifting from trading direction to trading probability. The systemic conflict is described as follows: inflation requires tightness, while a weakening labor market points toward easing.
Brent crude is at $108.50, driven by paralysis in the Middle East, pushing the global economy closer to recession. The article links this to the classic market risk of the “Sell in May and Go Away” narrative.
In 2026, the concern is heightened: if by May 1 investors do not see a dovish pivot from the Fed, profit-taking ahead of the summer slowdown could become widespread, turning a seasonal pattern into a larger-scale risk-off move.
The decisive trigger will be U.S. GDP data for Q1 2026, released on April 30. A potential gap is highlighted between expectations: the consensus forecast stands at 2.2%, while Trading Economics analysts expect 1.5%.
If the actual figures confirm a sharp economic slowdown alongside above-target inflation, the article says this would signal stagflation. For XRP, described as a barometer of retail sentiment, the worst-case scenario is that April ETF inflows could quickly turn into May outflows amid a broad decline in risk appetite.
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