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At 8:30 a.m. on April 21, the SJC gold bullion price quoted by businesses was around 168.5 million VND per tael for buying and 171.5 million VND per tael for selling, showing little change from the previous day.
Jewelry and 99.99% gold rings were also traded stably at about 168 million VND per tael for buying and 171 million VND per tael for selling.
Domestic gold prices have remained steady in recent days, trading at roughly 170–172 million VND per tael, even as world gold prices rose sharply. As a result, the domestic–world price gap narrowed to about 18 million VND per tael from around 30 million previously.
Economist Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said the domestic gold bullion and jewelry market is not fully interconnected with the world market, so international fluctuations do not immediately and strongly affect domestic prices.
He added that the domestic market is still heavily driven by supply–demand. With limited supply and demand remaining high, prices can move, but typically within a narrower margin than the world market.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu also pointed to Vietnamese consumers’ well-defined gold-hoarding psychology. Many buyers are willing to purchase gold even when prices fluctuate sharply, partly due to fear of missing out (FOMO) and partly because gold is viewed as a traditional store of value. This tends to make domestic demand more stable, and when world prices fall sharply, domestic selling pressure is often limited, sometimes even turning into buying pressure.
The State Bank of Vietnam is reviewing the dossiers of 11 units seeking licenses to produce gold ingots and import raw materials. If approved, the domestic price could face stronger downward pressure.
While the domestic–world spread has already narrowed from a record of about 30 million VND per tael to around 18 million per tael, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said whether it can continue shrinking to 10 million or 5 million per tael depends on several factors.
If the State Bank allows some commercial banks and enterprises to import raw gold materials and produce ingots, supply could improve and help narrow the spread. However, there is no concrete information yet on which units would be licensed or the import volumes, leaving supply conditions uncertain.
Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves remain limited. With rising oil prices and geopolitical risks, increasing gold imports could put pressure on the balance of payments, which constrains the potential for a short-term supply increase.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said the public’s gold-hoarding psychology is unlikely to change in the short term. Taken together, these factors suggest domestic prices are likely to stay high, making it unlikely for the spread to narrow to 3–5 million VND per tael at least over the next three months.
On the outlook for world gold, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said recent price movements have been driven largely by geopolitical factors, especially the Middle East conflict. When tensions escalate, investors tend to seek gold as a safe-haven asset, pushing prices up; when there are signs of de-escalation, profit-taking can drive prices down.
He also noted that central banks in major economies—including China, India, and Brazil—have been increasing gold reserves to diversify assets and reduce USD exposure, which supports gold prices over the long term.
In addition, US economic factors such as USD movements, inflation, and recession risk are key drivers of gold price trends.
Under current conditions, many forecasts suggest world gold prices could reach around USD 5,000/ounce in 2026, with a 60–70% probability. For Vietnam’s domestic market, if this trend continues, prices could rise to around 180 million VND per tael, with about a 60% probability.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said gold is not a suitable instrument for speculation. He noted that many investors who bought gold at peak levels—above 190 million VND per tael—have incurred losses after prices corrected.
While gold yields over the past year could reach 50–60%, far above bank interest rates, he said these gains largely belong to long-term holders. By contrast, short-term trading carries high risk.
To pursue returns, investors need financial discipline, monitor the market, and allocate portfolios appropriately. For gold, he suggested a mid-term holding period of at least six months to help reduce risk.
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