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Ripple said it is confident strong institutional adoption could help U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reach JPMorgan’s target of $4 billion to $8.4 billion in inflows. In a recent report, Ripple noted that the products crossed $1 billion in inflows in their first month after debut. It added that the wrapped products have since recorded cumulative inflows of more than $1.50 billion and accumulated over 769 million XRP.
Ripple also pointed to broad institutional participation, saying more than 30 institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have exposure to XRP through the ETF wrappers.
Ripple said the ETFs maintained inflows even as the broader market pulled back since October. Commenting on what it described as institutional stickiness amid volatility, Ripple said:
It suggests institutions are making considered allocation decisions, not chasing short-term momentum.
Ripple’s view aligns with JPMorgan’s projection that XRP ETFs could attract $4 billion to $8 billion of inflows in the first year. Ripple noted that the first product debuted in November via Canary Capital’s XRPC, leaving seven months to assess whether the projection holds.
Ripple said that if the base case of $4 billion in inflows is reached, it would represent 3.15x growth from the current $1.27 billion.
Ripple also highlighted that spot XRP ETFs recorded $55.4 million in inflows last week, the highest weekly inflows since mid-January. It said this move lifted XRP from $1.31 to a high of $1.5, representing more than a 14% gain. At the time of writing, XRP had given back some gains and was trading at $1.4.
Ripple further cited Realized Cap, described as a metric tracking capital inflows into a token, as reinforcing the positive outlook shared in its report.
According to Glassnode data cited by Ripple, XRP has seen $4 billion in outflows that began in February. Ripple said that, assuming the market has reached a bottom, this would be the lowest level of outflows compared with past bear markets.
Ripple compared the current cycle with prior downturns, noting that during the 2018 pullback XRP outflows were larger, with Realized Cap falling from $23 billion to $16 billion (a $7 billion decline). For the 2022 crash, Realized Cap dropped from $34 billion to $26 billion, implying $8 billion in outflows.
Ripple said the 2026 pullback has been about twice as low as the capital exit seen in 2022, adding that XRP has shown relative resilience this cycle. It said Ripple’s view is that “the institutional era has begun” and could continue from current levels, though it added that it remains to be seen whether XRP will stay resilient if broader market sentiment worsens further.
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