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XRP is correcting more than 40% from its January highs and is trading near $1.40, raising a key question for investors: whether the broader bullish structure remains intact or whether the asset has entered a prolonged bearish phase. The token is currently in a $1.39 to $1.43 range, well below the roughly $2.40 level reached weeks ago.
Supporters of the long-term bullish thesis point to higher-timeframe technical conditions that, in their view, have not deteriorated. They note that XRP has not closed below key supports on higher timeframes, which they describe as a necessary condition to invalidate the main trend.
They also highlight that the 200-week moving average remains below the current price, reinforcing the argument that the decline is a corrective phase within a larger uptrend rather than a full trend reversal.
Crypto Economy analysts frame the selloff as a fourth-wave correction within a five-wave impulse. In this interpretation, the retracement reached the 50% Fibonacci level, a common turning point in “healthy” corrections.
They also cite XRP’s micro-structure at recent lows as a differentiator versus many other altcoins, which they say often show three-wave corrective patterns. The relative strength implied by this five-wave structure is presented as a potential sign that XRP could lead the next recovery.
Standard Chartered reduced its year-end forecast for XRP by the end of 2026, cutting the projection from $8 to $2.80. The adjustment is described as a response to the need to moderate expectations after the initial rally, suggesting the market may be pricing in reduced “euphoria” in the coming months.
On the daily chart, XRP is described as trading within a descending channel. The price is also said to be below several exponential moving averages, which act as resistances.
Some analysts warn that if selling pressure persists, XRP could test the $1.00 zone, identified as the lower boundary of the channel. They also point to a recent outflow of nearly 200 million tokens from exchanges; while some interpret this as accumulation, they say it has not been enough to push XRP above the $1.50 to $1.60 resistance area, indicating demand has not yet absorbed supply.
Two immediate catalysts are expected to influence direction in the coming days. The first is the release of the U.S. PCE index, scheduled for February 20. The report is described as an inflation “thermometer” that can affect risk appetite.
A PCE reading below expectations could push XRP toward the $1.60 resistance. Conversely, data above forecasts would increase the probability of declines toward $1.35 or lower levels.
The $1.60 area is described as the dividing line between bearish and bullish scenarios. A clear break above $1.60 with volume would open the path toward $1.80 and potentially toward yearly highs near $2.40. If XRP fails to overcome that barrier, the corrective structure is expected to remain in place.
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