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XRP kicked off the week on a stronger footing, with market attention turning to a potential move back toward $1.5 as increased utility-related activity boosted sentiment. Reports of higher utility in the banking sector and a surge in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) were cited as key drivers behind renewed demand for XRP.
On Monday, February 16, XRP also benefited from strong demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and rising optimism that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill. Together, these factors underpin a bullish medium-term view for XRP over the next 4–8 weeks, with a stated price target of $2.5.
XRP utility remains a central theme in Ripple’s broader push, supported by XRPL’s product suite and repeated messaging from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse that XRP is core to Ripple’s expansion. This month, Ripple released a paper on institutional DeFi on XRPL, emphasizing scaling real-world finance with XRP at the center.
Key points highlighted in the paper included:
Following the paper’s release on February 5, XRP rallied from a February 6 low of $1.1227 to a February 15 high of $1.6703. Additional cited contributors included reports of increased RWA tokenization on XRPL, XRP-spot ETF inflows, and crypto-related legislative developments on Capitol Hill.
Ripple’s institutional DeFi focus also centered on RWA tokenization. According to rwa.xyz, tokenized physical commodities, commodity-linked securities, and funds tied to raw materials and natural resources have risen year-to-date.
Reported market metrics included:
ETF demand was also highlighted. The US XRP-spot ETF market recorded total net inflows of $1.23 billion since launch, compared with $0.875 billion of inflows into US SOL-spot ETFs. By comparison, US BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETF markets saw net outflows of $5 billion and $2.49 billion since November 2025.
The article links robust XRP-spot ETF demand to investor sentiment around XRP utility and to the potential for crypto-friendly legislation to support RWA tokenization and Ripple’s expansion plans.
Despite recovering from February’s low of $1.1227, XRP remains down 10% in February, which is presented as the basis for a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1–4 weeks). The short-term target cited is $1.0.
At the same time, ETF demand, expectations for US Senate action on the Market Structure Bill, and improving XRP utility are used to support a bullish medium- to longer-term outlook:
The article lists several developments that could undermine the constructive medium-term bias:
It also points to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and yen carry trades. A hawkish BoJ stance—described as potentially raising the neutral interest rate to a range of 1.5%–2.5%—could narrow US–Japan rate differentials. The article notes that narrowing differentials may trigger a yen carry trade unwind and a liquidity crunch, referencing similar dynamics from mid-2024.
On February 16, XRP gained 0.87%, partially reversing the prior day’s 2.25% loss, and closed at $1.4879. The token outperformed the broader crypto market cap, which rose 0.4%.
Even with the rebound, XRP was described as remaining below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, with the EMA positioning indicating a bearish bias. However, the 50-day EMA is flattening, suggesting a potential shift in technical conditions. The article also notes that favorable fundamentals are offsetting bearish technicals, supporting the medium-term outlook.
Key technical levels cited include:
The article states that a break above $1.50 could allow bulls to target the 50-day EMA, and a sustained move through that level would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. It adds that a sustained breakout above the EMAs would support the medium- to longer-term price targets.
Near-term price drivers listed include:
The article characterizes XRP’s February performance as reinforcing a bearish trend and notes the risk of a five-month losing streak. It states that a break below the lower trendline would bring the February 6 low of $1.1227 into focus. If that level is breached, $1.0 is identified as the next key support.
It also outlines a scenario where reclaiming $1.5 could open the way to testing $2.0 and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would be described as invalidating the bearish structure and indicating a bullish trend reversal.
Looking ahead, the article emphasizes that progress on Capitol Hill—particularly an agreement related to stablecoin yields—could strengthen expectations for Senate passage of the Market Structure Bill and support XRP demand. It also highlights that central bank commentary and XRP-spot ETF flow trends are expected to influence XRP’s price trajectory.
In the scenario described, a more dovish Fed and a lower BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%–1.25%) would support buying interest in risk assets. Combined with continued US XRP-spot ETF demand and crypto-friendly regulatory developments, the article reiterates the medium-term target of $2.5 (4–8 weeks) and the longer-term target of $3.0 (8–12 weeks).
Beyond 12 weeks, the article references a potential move toward XRP’s all-time high of $3.66 (Binance) and notes that a breakout above $3.66 would support a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.
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