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Crypto analyst Austin Hilton says XRP could fall below $1 if Bitcoin breaks the $50,000 level, and he is framing that potential drop as a buying window rather than a sign that the underlying network momentum is fading.
Hilton argues that the current XRP sell-off is obscuring a development most retail investors are not focusing on: institutions are building on the XRP Ledger while prices decline.
He says financial institutions are integrating Ripple’s on-chain infrastructure, but are not buying XRP in bulk to push the spot price higher.
Hilton points to recent XRP Ledger activity, including the activation of XLS-81 this month, which launched permissioned decentralized exchanges with built-in KYC and AML controls intended for banks and regulated firms. He also notes that Ripple expanded escrow tools to cover stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets, creating what he describes as a compliance-ready on-chain toolkit.
Hilton also cites signals beyond the ledger itself, including:
Hilton links the sell-off to broader forces outside crypto. He says the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s tariff framework, after which the White House pivoted to impose more. He also notes that the EU is publicly refusing to accept the hikes and that Iran–US tensions continue escalating.
In his view, these pressures are suppressing price action across crypto even as infrastructure and institutional activity continue.
Hilton connects XRP’s near-term direction to Bitcoin’s downside risk, saying Bitcoin is at risk of dropping to $55,000 or below $50,000. In that scenario, he expects XRP to follow and potentially fall under $1.
“I never thought I’d be able to buy XRP below a dollar again, simply put.”
Hilton’s accumulation thesis also depends on a regulatory catalyst. He references the CLARITY Act, saying it carries 80% odds of passing by April, according to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. He adds that Polymarket bettors price the odds at 85%.
He argues that if regulatory clarity and macro relief arrive together, the gap between XRP’s infrastructure reality and its price could close quickly.
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