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XRP has been consolidating for weeks but has held above a key support level at $1.30 as market sentiment appears to be shifting.
Markets have been calmer than they were a couple of weeks ago, as the U.S. war with Iran could soon come to an end. Iran reportedly proposed a new peace deal, with negotiations continuing to progress toward fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing the oil market.
Oil is trading around $95, down 19% from its recent peak. The decline may have reduced investors’ concerns about higher inflation driven by increased energy costs.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will deliver its interest-rate decision. The market expects no change to the federal funds rate for now, and analysts reportedly no longer expect a rate cut this year.
The meeting is also expected to be the last one presided over by Chairman Jerome Powell, as Kevin Warsh is expected to replace the long-tenured Fed head next month. Warsh’s Senate hearings have reportedly satisfied lawmakers, and confirmation appears to be in place.
CoinShares’ James Butterfill said markets appeared satisfied with Warsh’s answers during the hearings, noting that futures barely moved and Bitcoin showed no meaningful reaction—removing one near-term concern around policy credibility.
Butterfill added that if Warsh adopts a dovish stance early in his tenure, it could support a bullish outlook for “exotic” assets such as XRP.
Even with improving conditions, XRP has lagged behind Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as capital continues to flow into higher-quality assets, suggesting risk appetite remains limited.
Over the past 30 days, BTC and ETH have gained 17% and 16%, respectively. By comparison, XRP, BNB, and SOL have delivered lower returns of 5%, 3%, and 2%.
Exchange-traded products (ETPs) ended a fourth consecutive week in positive territory as sentiment improved. CoinShares reported that $1.2 billion flowed into crypto ETPs last week, which it said likely reflects improving institutional demand alongside Bitcoin trading at its highest levels since early February.
XRP-focused ETFs brought in $25 million during the period, bringing accumulated year-to-date positive inflows to $148 million.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 44, down from a recent high of 62. The index’s move away from “Greed” marks a shift in sentiment, though it was noted as the first time the gauge entered “Greed” territory since October 2025.
On the weekly chart, XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a similar pattern to prior periods where bear markets ended. The last three times the RSI dipped below 33, it was described as a strong buying opportunity for XRP.
Historically, three periods—2020 (pandemic crash), 2022 (higher rates and FTX’s collapse), and 2024—were associated with volatile but strongly positive returns ranging from 226% to 1,460%. The RSI recently fell to 30 in early March, marking the fourth time it has hit these lows. If the historical pattern repeats, the article suggests XRP may be approaching a cycle bottom around $1.30.
It also outlines a descending weekly price channel, with resistance areas to watch at $1.60 and $1.80. If price rises to $2, it is described as potentially triggering faster movement, including the possibility of a short squeeze. The article’s upside scenario points to XRP trading around $5 about a year from now.
On the daily chart, a trendline support has formed after XRP climbed from $1.30 to $1.50 over the past few weeks. The key demand area highlighted is $1.40, which coincides with the token’s 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). With price trading above this level, the article expects a retest from above to help generate liquidity for a move higher.
Targets cited include $1.50 first, followed by a stronger move toward $1.65. The article frames this as an 18% upside potential and a potential swing-trading opportunity.
It also describes a risk-reward framework using an entry at $1.40 and a stop at $1.35, with a first take-profit target at $1.49 and a second target at $1.65. The RSI is currently at 40, and the article says a strong bounce off $1.40 is needed, along with a move above 60 to confirm a sentiment shift.
Conversely, if XRP breaks down below the trendline support, the article says a retest of the $1.30 area is likely, described as a “last line of defense” to prevent a 14% decline.
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