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XRP remained rangebound near $1.42 despite continued spot ETF inflows, as Ripple CTO David Schwartz played down expectations that central bank adoption could be imminent based on non-disclosure agreements.
As of Saturday ET, XRP was trading at $1.4218, according to CoinMarketCap data, down 0.86% over the past 24 hours on roughly $1.06 billion in trading volume. The token has attempted small intraday rebounds, but its price action remains confined within an ascending wedge pattern, which traders often monitor for a potential volatility expansion once key support or resistance levels break.
Short-term support is clustered around the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.4066 and the 50-day EMA at $1.4154. Overhead, analysts are watching the wedge’s upper boundary near $1.55 and the 100-day EMA around $1.5313. XRP has repeatedly failed to close above $1.50 since February, instead oscillating within a $1.30–$1.45 band.
Performance remains mixed: the token’s 30-day return is up 3.73%, while the 90-day return is down 24.18%, indicating lingering medium-term downside pressure despite periodic rallies.
XRP’s market capitalization is near $87.7 billion, ranking it fourth among cryptocurrencies. That size can make ETF-related flows particularly relevant, since even incremental allocation shifts may affect liquidity and market depth around key chart levels.
Spot XRP ETFs continued to attract capital, with net inflows of $6.44 million recorded on April 24 ET. Cumulative net inflows across five products have surpassed $1.29 billion, while combined assets under management sit around $1.1 billion—about 1.23% of XRP’s total market value. Some research groups estimate broader ETF-linked positioning could exceed $2.6 billion, implying exposure may be larger than headline AUM figures suggest when derivatives and related strategies are included.
Market observers also pointed to declining exchange balances of XRP, a trend often interpreted as reduced immediately available supply. If sustained, it can support price stability during selling episodes, though it does not remove the risk of sharp moves if leveraged positioning becomes crowded.
Against this backdrop, Ripple Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz pushed back on a narrative that NDAs with central banks should be treated as a near-term catalyst. In comments circulating in the market, Schwartz said investors treating NDAs as proof of imminent adoption are “deceiving themselves,” describing NDAs as standard industry practice rather than evidence that a major event is about to occur.
Traders viewed the remarks as a caution against “blind optimism,” particularly for a token sensitive to headline-driven swings. Schwartz’s message emphasized that confidentiality arrangements should not be conflated with deployment decisions by public institutions.
Regulatory progress in Washington is another variable for XRP. On April 23 ET, more than 120 crypto companies, including Ripple and Coinbase ($COIN), sent a letter urging the U.S. Senate to advance the “CLARITY Act” (CLARITY Act). With lawmakers targeting a late-May deadline, the industry is pressing for a federal framework that clarifies digital asset classifications and regulatory jurisdiction—an outcome firms argue is necessary to unlock larger-scale institutional participation.
Long-range forecasts remain bullish in some parts of the market. Bitwise’s chief investment officer outlined a high-end scenario projecting XRP at $6.53 by the end of 2026, $9.60 by the end of 2027, and $29.32 by 2030. Those projections depend on assumptions including sustained ETF-driven allocations, regulatory clarity, and broader crypto market expansion.
For the near term, technical traders are focused on whether XRP can reclaim $1.55 and hold above the 100-day EMA, which could open the door to a move toward the 200-day EMA near $1.7720. Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA support area around $1.4066 could increase the odds of a retracement toward the $1.30–$1.35 zone.
With ETF inflows providing a potential demand tailwind and U.S. policymaking still in flux, XRP’s next decisive move may depend less on speculation about central bank partnerships and more on measurable positioning, supply trends, and the pace of regulatory “clarity” that could reshape institutional risk appetite.
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