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Semiconductor stocks have historically tended to perform well in May. While the Nasdaq Composite’s historic win streak has faded for momentum, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) extended an 18-day winning streak before giving back 1% on Monday. The SOX then reclaimed $500 on Thursday and held that level on Friday. Over the period, the SOX rose nearly 45%, with Nvidia (NVDA) contributing about 22% of the gain. Nvidia’s relative strength index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, while the SOX RSI is around 75. Despite ongoing inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, the data points to a historically bullish May for many semiconductor names.
Looking across the best S&P 500 stocks to own in May over the last decade, roughly 25 names were identified, with 13 of them being semiconductors. Nvidia’s average May return over that span was 17.4%, alongside a 90% win rate. Of the semiconductor winners, 11 were components of the SOX.
Beyond May’s historical returns, the following factors were highlighted among the semiconductor outperformers:
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has averaged a May return of 6.8% over the last decade and is one of only two tracked ETFs with a 90% win rate. The article frames SMH as an alternative for investors who prefer broad exposure rather than selecting individual stocks.
A key explanation offered for Nvidia’s strong May record is that its earnings reports have often fallen in May in recent years, leading to historically upbeat post-earnings reactions. The article cites two examples: last May, shares added 3.2% after the report; in May 2024, the stock gapped higher by 9.3% following earnings.
That earnings-seasonality pattern places several additional stocks in focus for the month. Beyond Nvidia, the article lists ON Semiconductor (ON), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Analog Devices (ADI), and Applied Materials (AMAT) as reporting earnings during the historically strong May window.
For ON, the options market is pricing in a 12.3% move, described as nearly double its average post-earnings move (regardless of direction) over the last two years. For Microchip, the same pricing framework is referenced. For companies reporting later than a week ahead, implied earnings moves were not yet available in the source material.
While the article notes that AMAT and MCHP are “working uphill” against some lackluster results in recent periods, it emphasizes that the broader May setup for semiconductors is supported by historical performance patterns and earnings-related market reactions. It also reiterates that Nvidia’s May performance has been linked to upbeat post-earnings outcomes observed in prior years.
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