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Bitcoin is down by 45% in six months, a volatile swing that can be unsettling for first-time investors. While such moves are part of the asset’s history, anyone considering buying should understand the risks and dynamics that shape Bitcoin’s performance.
Bitcoin’s track record has created many millionaires, but there is no guarantee that it will rise in value over any specific period.
In 2025, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility was about 42%, which is lower than it was before the asset became more integrated into traditional financial markets. Even so, it still shows roughly four times the volatility of the stock market over longer stretches.
Since 2015, Bitcoin has entered a bear market—defined here as a 20% or greater drawdown without a subsequent 20% recovery—about 34 times. By comparison, the S&P 500 has done so just twice over the same span.
In practice, investors should expect stretches—sometimes lasting a year or longer—during which Bitcoin declines and remains “underwater.” For reference, Bitcoin’s 2022 drawdown was 77%. If a decline of that magnitude would lead you to sell, the article suggests reconsidering whether cryptocurrency fits your investment goals.
Many reasons investors cite for Bitcoin—scarcity, independence from central bank money printing, and institutional or sovereign adoption—are described as slow-moving narratives rather than quick catalysts.
On scarcity, more than 95% of the 21 million possible Bitcoins have already been mined. The next halving is not expected until April 2028. While halvings are positioned as meaningful supply events, their price effects typically unfold over multiple quarters or even a couple of years.
The article also notes that Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency debasement is unproven over longer inflationary cycles, given that Bitcoin has existed for less than two decades. It adds that institutional adoption is still in early stages.
As a baseline, the article states that a five-year minimum holding period is a reasonable approach, and that holding for less time can increase the risk of being forced to sell during a drawdown.
Bitcoin does not have a CEO, board, or corporate headquarters. However, the absence of a single executive leader does not mean the network lacks influential participants.
The protocol is open-source software maintained by a small group of roughly 41 core developers, with five maintainers authorized to merge code changes. Bitcoin Core—the software package they maintain—runs on about 90% of all full nodes, giving this group an outsize role in shaping the protocol’s direction.
On the ownership side, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and its executive chairman, Michael Saylor, are described as holding approximately 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply. The article characterizes this as a significant concentration, noting that Saylor’s decisions about when and how aggressively to buy (or hypothetically sell) can influence the asset’s price.
Overall, the article’s conclusion is that buying Bitcoin exposes investors to human-centric risks that many investors may underestimate.
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