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DeFi lending protocol Aave (AAVE) has been left exposed following the KelpDAO exploit. During the incident, attackers minted 116.5k unbacked rsETH and used it as collateral to borrow high-quality assets.
The attack resulted in $200 million in bad debt for Aave. To absorb the losses, the protocol has partnered with major DeFi platforms and launched a coordinated recovery effort under the name “DeFi United.”
In the last 60 days, more than $600 million has been lost to crypto hacks. The exploit also affected Aave’s USDC market, where liquidity strain emerged. USDC utilization approached 100%, effectively locking the market.
Aave’s price trend remains bearish across higher timeframes. On the 1-day timeframe, the swing structure was bearish at the time of writing, and moving averages supported the downward bias. However, there were notable elements in the price behavior.
One key factor was the reaction of AAVE prices between $86 and $91 on Monday, 20 April. After bouncing to test the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $116.45, expectations pointed to a downward trend, but the price did not follow through. Despite broader DeFi disruption, AAVE remained above the $90 demand zone.
The resurgence in On-Balance Volume (OBV) in recent days added to the uncertainty about whether the downtrend has ended.
On-chain metrics from the daily timeframe were cited as supporting the view that the downtrend may continue. Crypto analyst Moreno DV, via CryptoQuant Insights, reported that Binance has been receiving increasing amounts of AAVE reserves. These inflows coincided with Total Value Locked (TVL) falling to the lowest levels since November 2024.
About a month ago, when AAVE traded near $130, Binance reserves were 1.576 million tokens. At the time of writing, the token price was down nearly 30%, while Binance reserves had increased 9.3% to 1.723 million tokens.
The analyst noted that a spike in inflows can act as a proxy for intent, and that the opposite of accumulation appeared to be underway. For the downtrend to stabilize, selling pressure would need to be absorbed over the coming days.
A move above $132 was identified as necessary to break the downtrend and signal a potential reversal.
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