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About 50 million Americans now own Bitcoin, according to a River report, surpassing the roughly 37 million who own gold. In Polymarket’s Bitcoin price contract for levels above $60,000 by April 19, the market is showing 100% “YES,” indicating traders are pricing in no meaningful risk of a move below that threshold by the contract date.
Americans hold about 40% of the global Bitcoin supply, even as Bitcoin is down 20% year-to-date. Despite that drawdown, the Polymarket contract for “Bitcoin above $60,000 by April 19” remains at 99.9% “YES,” with the “Bitcoin above” contracts for surrounding dates also clustered near 99.9%.
Longer-dated price expectations are materially lower. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is at 38% “YES,” while the contract for $150,000 is at 11% “YES.” The contrast suggests that high domestic ownership has not translated into confidence that prices will recover to prior highs.
Trading volume in the Bitcoin price targets market was reported at $2,274 in USDC over the past 24 hours. Order book depth was listed at $8,640 to move 5 points, implying that a single large trade could still shift prices meaningfully.
At 38¢, a “YES” share on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026 pays $1 if it hits, implying a 2.63x return. To support that bet, traders would need a specific catalyst. The article points to Federal Reserve policy shifts as the most obvious driver, citing Jerome Powell’s upcoming statements, alongside BlackRock’s Bitcoin-related activity, including ETF flows and new products.
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