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Bitcoin’s recent price action has left traders divided between those expecting another move lower and those arguing that a bottom has already formed. That uncertainty is now shaping competing technical interpretations, with one analyst saying the odds of a deeper selloff have fallen sharply based on long-term indicators.
Crypto analyst Sykodelic pointed to Bitcoin’s behavior on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart as the core of his case. He argued that the drawdown that followed Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 in 2025 appears to be largely complete, and that the probability of Bitcoin revisiting new lows has dropped “massively.”
In his analysis posted on X, Sykodelic highlighted that the weekly RSI has fallen below 30 only three times in Bitcoin’s history, with the most recent occurrence in Q1 2026. He said the RSI has since returned to a normal range and has broken above a descending trendline that had been forming lower highs.
According to Sykodelic, this combination implies that the likelihood of new lows—of any kind—is now very slim.
Sykodelic said the RSI development was not isolated. He noted that several bottom indicators have aligned at the same time, describing the convergence as reaching a “very high degree.” He cited that around 12 important bottom indicators have fired.
He also pointed to broader market data supporting the bottoming narrative. Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to seven-year lows, while whale wallets are accumulating more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin—described as their highest level in over two months.
On the investment side, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $954.05 million in net inflows so far in April. This follows a $1.32 billion inflow in March, which was the first positive month since October 2025.
In the chart Sykodelic shared, the weekly price structure shows BTC breaking out of a descending trendline above $70,000. He said the same breakout pattern appears across both the price candles and the RSI panel.
He added that prior breakouts in 2022, 2023, and early 2025 were also associated with a similar RSI breakout of a descending trendline.
While Sykodelic’s view suggests downside continuation is becoming harder to sustain, he did not declare an unconditional all-clear. He emphasized that the most important near-term confirmation is how Bitcoin closes the week.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $75,818, up 1.4% over the past 24 hours.
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