Another brokerage trims VN-Index forecast to below 2,000 points for full-year 2026

In the base-case scenario, the VN-Index is forecast to close at 1,967 points, up 10.2% from 2025. The outlook is lower than the 2,100-point forecast issued in an early-year strategy report, reflecting external uncertainty risks.

Updated VN-Index and profit growth outlook

VnDirect’s updated April market-profit outlook report forecasts the VN-Index to end 2026 at 1,967 points, representing a 10.2% increase versus 2025.

For listed companies on HoSE, VnDirect expects net profit growth of about 14% in 2026, revised down from the previous forecast of 18% growth. The brokerage said the adjustment mainly reflects tougher comparables, as many companies’ 4Q2025 profits exceeded expectations.

What supports 2026 earnings growth

VnDirect said the full-year 2026 profit growth outlook is supported by several factors:

• GDP growth is projected to accelerate further.
• Business results across many sectors are expected to remain positive, supported by selective expansion of fiscal policy that boosts the private sector.
• Foreign direct investment inflows are improving.
• Consumer spending is gradually recovering.
• A flexible monetary policy is expected to balance growth and macro stability, easing exchange-rate pressures and supporting business operations.

Valuations after the March correction

After a sharp correction in March 2026, the VN-Index’s 12-month forward price-earnings (P/E) ratio fell to 13.8x, below the 10-year average of 15.4x. VnDirect said valuations are not yet “cheap,” but are supported by the market upgrade narrative and the positive earnings growth outlook for 2026.

April market view: volatility, upgrade catalyst, and risks

VnDirect expects the Vietnamese stock market in April 2026 to remain volatile, moving back and forth amid a mix of supportive factors and external risks.

On the positive side, FTSE Russell’s review confirming the upgrade schedule taking effect from September 2026 is expected to support sentiment and capital inflows.

On the downside, geopolitical risks—particularly the possibility of escalating tensions between the US and Iran—remain a key source of pressure on the market. VnDirect noted that short-term corrections could occur on unfavorable information.

Index path and investor approach

In the upgrade-positive scenario, VnDirect expects demand to improve, helping the VN-Index consolidate around key support levels rather than fall sharply. The brokerage advised investors to focus on selective stock-picking with solid fundamentals, high liquidity, and the ability to benefit from index fund flows, while maintaining risk-management discipline and limiting leverage.

Medium-term technical and money-flow signals

VnDirect said 2026 could be a turning point for Vietnam’s stock market as FTSE Russell formally upgrades the market in September 2026, alongside infrastructure improvements and structural reforms aimed at bringing the market closer to regional standards. While external risks may drive short-term volatility, the stable macro backdrop and attractive valuations are expected to support an upward trend in 2026.

Technically, after the strong March correction, the VN-Index has lost the mid-term uptrend formed after the bottom following the April 2025 tax event. However, the index quickly recovered and regained the 200-day moving average after breaking through, which has not confirmed a medium-to-long-term downtrend.

Trend-channel and money-flow outlook

• Short term: Heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran could lift risk-off sentiment, with short-term funds likely to stay cautious. The VN-Index is expected to continue swinging and test support around 1,585 points.
• Medium term: The upgrade narrative is expected to sustain optimism. Medium-term money is likely to accumulate on pullbacks, supporting a recovery and bringing the VN-Index toward resistance around 1,750 points.