Stock Futures Point Lower as Ceasefire Deal Looks Uncertain

Stocks are losing ground Thursday morning after a relief rally the prior session, as uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement weighs on sentiment. Investors are also looking ahead to fresh inflation data and corporate updates, including planned job cuts at Disney and an earnings outlook change at Constellation Brands.

Ceasefire uncertainty pulls futures lower

Stock futures pointed slightly lower as doubts about the ceasefire’s terms appeared to limit follow-through from Wednesday’s gains. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.5%, those linked to the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.3%.

All three major indexes rose on Wednesday after markets reacted positively to the ceasefire pact. However, ongoing attacks from Israel in Lebanon and public disagreements over the agreement’s terms have introduced cracks in the deal.

• Gold futures were down fractionally to about $4,770 an ounce.
• The 10-year Treasury yield was edging lower to 4.29% from 4.30% at the prior close.
• Bitcoin was trading around $71,300 after approaching $73,000 during Wednesday’s rally.

Oil rises again amid Strait of Hormuz questions

Crude oil futures moved higher after falling the previous session, rising 5% to $99 per barrel early Thursday. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire would be conditioned on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. and Iran appeared to differ on whether reopening means ships can cross freely or whether vessels would need to pay a new toll.

Reporting cited ship-tracking data showing only four ships with trackers passed through the strait on Wednesday. Iran also told mediators it would limit traffic to around a dozen ships per day and charge tolls for movement through the waterway. Talks on a longer-term deal are set to begin in Pakistan on Friday.

PCE inflation report scheduled for release

Investors are set to receive another read on the economy before the Iran war began. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for February is due at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure to show inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year, unchanged from January. Month-over-month inflation was expected to rise 0.4%, up from 0.3% in January.

With the war expected to have contributed to inflation pressures—particularly through higher gas prices—the report is viewed as a key benchmark for how the economy was performing before the conflict started, informing the Fed’s decisions on interest rates over the rest of the year.

Disney plans layoffs under new CEO

The Walt Disney Company is planning a round of layoffs after new CEO Josh D’Amaro took over last month, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal late Wednesday. The cuts are expected to total up to 1,000 employees and are anticipated to be concentrated in the marketing department.

The Journal said Disney’s marketing organization was recently restructured to align teams for sports, entertainment, and experiences under a single top executive. The report also said the layoffs were planned before D’Amaro took over, and that Disney has cut thousands of jobs in recent years as it focused on areas of growth such as theme parks and cruises.

Disney shares were little changed ahead of the opening bell.

Constellation Brands outlook pressured by softer demand

Constellation Brands reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal fourth quarter after the closing bell Wednesday, but its outlook was less encouraging. The alcohol producer reported quarterly revenue of $1.92 billion, down 11% year-over-year, alongside adjusted earnings per share of $1.90. Both figures beat analyst estimates.

For the full year, Constellation’s revenue fell 10%. The company pointed to ongoing financial pressures on consumers that are keeping demand for alcohol lower, along with longer-term trends including younger Americans drinking less than older counterparts.

Constellation lowered its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS forecast and said it came in below analyst consensus. The company also withdrew its 2028 outlook. Constellation shares were down less than 1% in premarket trading.