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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has warned that Bitcoin could face a sharp downturn amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran. Hayes said the price could fall below $60,000 and that he would not buy at current levels.
In a recent interview, Hayes said that if the US, Israel and Iran conflict takes a long time to resolve, a sell-off across risk assets is likely. He added that in that scenario, BTC could drop below $60,000 and the market could experience another cascade of liquidations.
“The longer that this carries on, there could be a massive sell-off in equities, and Bitcoin might fall a bit lower, might break 60,000… If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes stated.
Hayes also said he is waiting to see whether the US Federal Reserve will “print money” to support its war-related stance. If that occurs, he argued it could weaken the USD and encourage a shift from fiat currency toward alternative assets such as Bitcoin, which he expects could later support a recovery.
He further cautioned that the market bottom has not been reached, and that additional sell-offs in equity markets could spill over into crypto. Hayes said Bitcoin has not decoupled and has been trading like a high-beta tech stock, even as he remains bullish over the long term.
“I see that as a huge opportunity. I don’t think there are going to be many more years where you can buy sub 100,000 Bitcoin,” he said.
Hayes’ comments come while Bitcoin is recovering. The article cited a 2.14% weekly gain, with the price testing resistance at $70,000.
In contrast to Hayes’ near-term caution, a Glassnode report cited in the article said Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strengthening and that a price rally may begin. The report pointed to ETF inflows as evidence of returning institutional demand.
Glassnode also noted that Bitcoin’s open interest is rising again, which it described as a sign of higher trader conviction. In addition, the report cited a surge in net unrealized profit/loss, suggesting traders are beginning to book profits after a difficult start in early Q1 2026.
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