ASML and TSMC poised to lift Nasdaq as AI demand remains strong

Technology stocks have been in a downturn over the past six months, and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite index is down 8% from its record high on Oct. 29, 2025. The Nasdaq Composite briefly entered correction territory on March 26 before jumping out of it, but the weakness in Nasdaq stocks is not seen as justified by investors given continued growth among leading technology names, largely driven by artificial intelligence (AI). The decline has been attributed to external factors, including the war in the Middle East.

Market attention is now turning to mid-April, when two major semiconductor companies—ASML Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)—are scheduled to release quarterly results on April 15 and April 16, respectively. The article argues that these updates could help restore confidence in the broader tech sector.

ASML and TSMC as key “pick-and-shovel” AI beneficiaries

The AI boom in recent years has been powered by semiconductors, which serve as the building blocks for training AI models and running inference applications in cloud and on devices such as smartphones, personal computers, and robots. McKinsey expects the global semiconductor market’s revenue to rise to $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion by 2030, from $775 billion last year. The article positions ASML and TSMC as major beneficiaries of that expansion.

Aggressive AI infrastructure spending supports both companies

AI infrastructure spending is expected to keep rising as businesses and governments invest to capture productivity gains from the technology. Statista projects AI infrastructure spending could increase from $334 billion last year to $902 billion in 2029. McKinsey estimates that 60% of AI infrastructure investment is allocated to chips and other computing hardware used in data centers, which could increase demand for the chips TSMC manufactures.

The article also highlights early 2026 momentum for TSMC. It reports that TSMC’s revenue increased 37% year over year in January, followed by a 22% jump in February. It adds that TSMC is expected to sustain strong performance through the rest of the year, supported by major customer demand.

Customer demand signals for TSMC

The article cites Nvidia’s outlook that it expects to sell $1 trillion worth of its Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI chip systems in 2026 and 2027. This would be double Nvidia’s earlier projection of $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin chip sales for 2025 and 2026. It also notes that Broadcom is forecasting a fivefold increase in AI chip revenue over two fiscal years.

TSMC was already estimating a 30% revenue increase in 2026, and the article suggests results could exceed that expectation given the scale of growth anticipated by chip designers such as Nvidia and Broadcom.

ASML’s EUV machine demand

Because TSMC relies on ASML’s EUV machines to produce advanced chips, the article says ASML is likely to benefit from strong order inflows. It further states that even memory manufacturers are preparing for increased EUV spending. SK Hynix, for example, is reported to have said it will purchase $8 billion worth of EUV machines from ASML to address a supply gap in the memory market.

Key figures and what investors may watch next week

Analysts cited in the article estimate a 15% increase in ASML’s revenue in 2026, along with a 20% increase in earnings. The article adds that ASML’s guidance could be stronger when it releases quarterly results next week.

Overall, the article concludes that solid results and guidance from ASML and TSMC could provide a confidence boost for investors and potentially help end the recent downturn in the Nasdaq Composite.