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A Balancer attacker has converted 21,000 ETH (about $48.7 million) into 617 BTC over three days, leaving roughly 1,000 ETH in the hacker’s address. Separate from the on-chain activity, a crypto hack prediction market on Polymarket shows a 100% “YES” probability for another $100 million crypto hack by December 31, with 251 days left until resolution.
The ETH-to-BTC conversion is described as part of the attacker’s ongoing liquidation of stolen funds. The large-scale move from ETH into BTC is expected to increase selling pressure on Ethereum as the proceeds are monetized.
On Polymarket, the crypto hack market is priced at 100% “YES,” reflecting the expectation that another hack above $100 million will occur before year-end. The article notes that the certainty is tied to the frequency of past large hacks.
However, the hack prediction market is reported to have zero volume. As a result, the 100% “YES” price is characterized as reflecting near-certainty of resolution rather than active trading.
In markets tied to Ethereum’s price, the probability of Ethereum trading above $2,600 on April 26 is shown at 0.2% “YES” across multiple sub-markets. The article adds that one of these markets has minimal daily trading activity, with about $3 in actual USDC, suggesting traders are not expecting a rebound within the next two days.
The liquidation of a large ETH position into BTC adds to selling pressure on Ethereum. The short-term direction for Ethereum is described as depending partly on whether the remaining 1,000 ETH is liquidated and on whether additional large ETH outflows emerge tied to this or similar exploits.
The article points to on-chain investigators and firms, including ZachXBT and Chainalysis, as likely sources for further details on the Balancer attacker’s movements.
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