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Bank deposit rates have fallen, but savers should not assume that money is cheap again. While lower rates reduce the attractiveness of savings accounts, real interest rates remain positive when inflation is considered, and saving in reputable banks remains a safe option for most people in a volatile investment environment.
In an interview with PV Tiền Phong, Dr. Nguyen Van Loc, Director of the Business and Trade Training Program at Phenikaa University, said banks are cutting deposit rates. Previously, deposit rates reached 7-8% per year; now common terms are around 3.5-4% for 6-9 months, and 5.5-6% for 12-18 months.
He also noted that interbank overnight and short-term rates have fallen by 0.2-0.5%, suggesting some liquidity relief.
However, Dr. Loc cautioned that the reduction reflects monetary policy rather than a return to the “cheap money” era of 2020-2021. Inflation pressures, exchange rate dynamics, and concerns about macroeconomic stability remain. Policy is being conducted with caution and flexibility.
A more notable development is a shift in capital allocation. In 2026, credit is prioritized for producers and traders, especially sectors producing real added value such as agriculture, exports, small and medium enterprises, supplier industries, and high-tech. It is estimated that about 70-80% of total system credit currently serves these sectors.
For production and business firms, the change is generally positive. Companies with strong finances, transparency, and stable orders are likely to gain access to capital at reasonable costs. Many banks have rolled out large credit packages focusing on manufacturing, exports, and energy and digital transformation.
Lending rates for these customers are expected to continue declining through incentive programs.
Dr. Nguyen Van Phuong of the National Economics University said speculative sectors will face more challenges in the new environment. Credit for stock market investments is also not as easy as before, as margin lending restrictions and collateral requirements are expected to persist to prevent capital from pushing asset prices to unsustainable levels.
In an environment where rates have not dropped deeply, borrowing to invest in risky assets remains risky and may not align with policy guidance. For savers, lower deposit rates may reduce the appeal of savings; however, real rates stay positive relative to inflation.
Given continued volatility in assets such as gold, real estate, and equities, saving in reputable banks remains a safe option for most people.
From a policy perspective, cooling rates and redirecting funds is described as a necessary step. Regulators are pursuing macro stability, inflation control, and financial-system safety while still supporting growth. Banks are expected to tighten lending standards and scrutinize borrowers, improving credit quality and reducing bad debt over the long run.
The message is that the era of easy, cheap capital has passed. In this environment, only firms with genuine operating efficiency, good governance, and transparent finances can access capital at reasonable costs. Investment strategies built on high leverage, particularly in speculative sectors, are likely to become harder to implement. Companies may also need to restructure finances, reduce reliance on short-term debt, strengthen equity, and improve capital efficiency.
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