MB Securities (MBS) forecasts that after-tax profits of banks in its monitored universe will rise by about 20% year-on-year in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Credit growth and sector lending outlook
MBS Research expects credit growth in Q1 2026 to remain tightly controlled, not exceeding 25% of the full-year target. System-wide lending is projected to end the quarter up about 3% from the start of the year, compared with a 3.9% increase in the same period last year.
The report notes that banks subject to mandatory transfers are expected to post stronger credit growth because they are not constrained in the early quarter.
Net interest margin and net interest income
For net interest margin (NIM), MBS forecasts the sector average to be flat year-on-year. This is expected to support a rise in first-quarter 2026 net interest income of about 14%.
MBS also expects the group of state-owned commercial banks to record slower growth than the private banking sector.
Provisioning costs to remain a key pressure
Provisioning costs are expected to increase as MBS Research estimates total sector provisioning costs will rise about 30.1% year-on-year. The private-bank group is projected to see a larger increase of around 47.2%, attributed to asset quality deterioration in 2025 and the lingering impact of Decree 86/2024.
Diverging bank-by-bank profit trajectories
MBS provides detailed forecasts for individual banks’ profit growth in Q1 and for 2026 as a whole. The outlook shows clear divergence, with some banks maintaining strong growth while others face headwinds from NIM and provisioning costs.
VPBank, VIB, HDBank: high-growth group
- VPBank: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 6,388 billion, up 62.3% year-on-year and reaching about 20% of the annual plan. Q1 credit growth is expected at around 7.5%. Full-year NIM is expected to be lower than last year due to higher deposit costs. Pretax net interest income is projected to rise about 34% year-on-year. Provisioning costs are forecast at about VND 7,300 billion, up more than 10%.
- HDBank: Q1 2026 net profit forecast at about VND 5,599 billion, up 28.5%. Full-year 2026 credit growth expected at roughly 30%, led by corporate and SME clients. NIM is expected to rise by about 30 basis points year-on-year. Provisioning costs are forecast to double due to the low base of the prior year.
- VIB: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 2,461 billion, up 27.1% year-on-year. Full-year 2026 lending projected to rise 15–16%, with corporate lending leading and retail lending more tightly controlled. NIM is expected to hold around 3.1%. Funding costs are supported by liquidity from the interbank market and offshore borrowings, helping reduce funding costs. Asset-quality improvements are expected to lower provisioning costs by about 56.2% year-on-year.
BIDV, Vietcombank, Techcombank: steady growth
- BIDV: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 7,574 billion, up 27.2% year-on-year. Q1 credit growth expected at around 1.8%, lower than the year-ago period due to tightened lending caps. NIM expected to improve as lending rates rise while funding costs remain low. Non-interest income projected to rise about 9%. Provisioning costs total around VND 5.7 trillion.
- Eximbank: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 792 billion, up 20.4%. Credit growth in Q1 is expected to be slow but improve over the year. NIM rises by about 36 basis points. Provisioning costs remain elevated due to bad debt.
- OCB: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 851 billion, up 19.5%. Q1 lending grows about 3.9%. NIM edges down slightly to around 3.2% as funding costs rise faster than lending rates. Provisioning costs rise due to asset-quality issues not yet fully recovered.
- Vietcombank: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 10,007 billion, up 15% year-on-year. Q1 credit growth around 1.6%, mainly from corporate lending. NIM expected to improve as lending rates rise again and the funding-cost advantage remains strong. Pretax net interest income up about 20%. Provisioning costs reach around VND 886 billion, up more than 14%.
- ACB: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 4,324 billion, up 17.6%. Q1 credit growth projected above 3%, with NIM improving to around 3%. Provisioning costs are up about 50% versus the low base year but down from the previous quarter.
- LPBank: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 2,937 billion, up 15.9%. Q1 credit growth about 3.5%, with NIM staying around 3.4%. Provisioning costs are expected to be flat as asset quality has not meaningfully improved.
- Techcombank: Q1 2026 after-tax profit forecast at about VND 6,794 billion, up 13%. Credit growth around 3.3%, lower than the prior year due to cooling property lending. NIM expected to stay around 3.8%. Non-interest income continues to be supported by fee-based activities and bond trading. Provisioning costs remain stable.
Sacombank: expected profit decline
Notably, Sacombank is the rare bank expected to report a decline in profit in Q1 2026. After-tax profit is expected to reach about VND 1,995 billion, down 31.1% year-on-year. MBS attributes the drop mainly to NIM compression and the absence of abnormal gains from bad-debt resolution seen in the previous year, including income from Phong Phu Industrial Park. Provisioning costs are also expected to rise faster due to the low base of the prior year.
