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VCBS forecasts that the banking sector’s profit growth in Q1 2026 will slow, pressured by higher funding costs and limited room for credit expansion, with real estate lending expected to remain particularly constrained. Government-owned banks are projected to perform better due to lower funding costs and a low earnings base in 2025, while private banks are expected to diverge in performance. Overall, VCBS expects government-owned banks to lead profit growth.
BIDV is forecast to record Q1 2026 operating income of about 20,833 billion VND (+16%), and pre-tax profit of 9,366 billion VND (+26%). For 2026 as a whole, VCBS projects pre-tax profit of 43,435 billion VND (+15%), with credit growth of 16.1% driven by retail and SME lending. Asset quality is expected to improve on higher bad-debt recovery, supported by plans to increase charter capital via stock dividends.
VietinBank is forecast to report Q1 2026 operating income of 23,537 billion VND (+15%) and pre-tax profit of 8,789 billion VND (+29%). For 2026, pre-tax profit could reach 49,911 billion VND (+15%), with NIM expected to improve from the second half of 2026 as both deposits and lending grow. VCBS also cites the success of the capital-raise plan as a factor supporting the long-term outlook.
MB is expected to maintain the highest credit-growth pace among the group at 35% in 2026. Q1 2026 operating income is projected at 19,759 billion VND (+29%), with pre-tax profit of 9,638 billion VND (+15%). For the year, pre-tax profit could reach 43,244 billion VND (+26%), with NIM around 3.9% and asset quality continuing to improve.
VCBS expects HDBank, VPBank and VIB to show the highest profit growth among private banks.
HDBank: Q1 2026 operating income is forecast at 11,045 billion VND (+20%), and pre-tax profit at 6,855 billion VND (+28%). For 2026, pre-tax profit could reach 27,025 billion VND (+27%), supported by credit growth higher than the industry average, a solid capital cushion, and momentum from retail, aviation, and consumer finance. VCBS also expects non-interest income to support earnings, including from insurance and participation in digital asset markets.
VIB: VCBS projects Q1 2026 operating income of 22,810 billion VND (+15% year-on-year) and pre-tax profit of 11,160 billion VND (+23%). For 2026, credit growth is expected to be in line with the industry average, supported by mortgage lending, auto loans and unsecured cards. Profit momentum is attributed to higher medium- to long-term lending with higher interest rates after promotional periods, alongside a rebound in non-interest income from insurance and fees.
VPBank: Q1 2026 operating income is expected at 18,368 billion VND (+18%), and pre-tax profit at 6,118 billion VND (+22%). For the year, lending growth is projected at 34.7%, driven by a rebound in home mortgages, consumer lending and margin trading. VCBS believes FE Credit will continue to contribute significantly to consolidated profits, supported by growth in subsidiary operations and improved NIM due to lower funding costs.
MSB: Q1 2026 operating income is forecast at 4,002 billion VND (+23%), and pre-tax profit at 1,949 billion VND (+20%). In 2026, credit could grow 16.9%, helping pre-tax profit reach 8,610 billion VND (+22%). Asset quality is expected to improve, with the non-performing loan ratio down to 2%, alongside plans to complete the financial-ecosystem through portfolio restructuring.
Sacombank: Q1 2026 operating income is forecast at 8,739 billion VND (+12%), and pre-tax profit at 4,023 billion VND (+10%). For 2026, pre-tax profit could reach 18,656 billion VND (+145%), supported by successful resolution of large debts, including plans to auction VAMC stock and settle Bamboo Airways-related debt.
ACB: Q1 2026 operating income is forecast at 8,390 billion VND (+6%), and pre-tax profit at 4,964 billion VND (+8%). For 2026, pre-tax profit could reach 23,012 billion VND (+18%), with credit growth around 16.1% driven by expansion of personal and SME customers. NIM is expected to recover from 2026 due to asset-structure adjustments and CASA growth.
Techcombank: Q1 2026 operating income is forecast at 12,192 billion VND (+5%), and pre-tax profit at 7,381 billion VND (+2%). For the full year, pre-tax profit could reach 38,010 billion VND (+17%), with credit growth of 15.5% supported by mortgage lending and margin trading. NIM is expected to improve from the second half of 2026, while non-interest income is expected to rise due to expansion of the financial-ecosystem.
Across the sector, VCBS links the expected slowdown in Q1 2026 profit growth to funding-cost pressures and constrained credit growth capacity, particularly for real estate lending. At the same time, the outlook differentiates between bank groups: government-owned banks benefit from lower funding costs and a favorable 2025 base, while private banks’ performance is shaped by credit growth targets, NIM trends, capital plans, and progress in improving asset quality.
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