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VanEck Chief Executive Officer Jan van Eck said Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a market bottom, pointing to the cryptocurrency’s four-year halving cycle as a key driver of recent price weakness.
In a CNBC appearance, van Eck said Bitcoin is shaped by two known factors: its limited supply of 21 million and the halving cycle. He described a recurring investing pattern in which Bitcoin tends to rise for about three years and then declines sharply in the fourth year. He characterized 2026 as the likely fourth year in that cycle, which could contribute to a bear market, while adding that a bottom may be forming.
Kaiko research supports the view that Bitcoin’s price continues to track historical cycle patterns. In a prior report, the firm said the post-peak drawdown—moving from around 126,000 USD to the 60,000–70,000 USD range—resembles corrections seen during previous bear phases.
Kaiko also noted that this movement falls within the historical window for cycle peaks, typically occurring 12–18 months after a halving event. The firm further observed that bear markets often take 6–12 months to establish sustainable bottoms, frequently accompanied by several failed rallies.
CryptoQuant estimated that Bitcoin’s market could bottom between June and December 2026, with the most likely window between September and November 2026.
Bitcoin showed a modest recovery amid rising geopolitical tensions. BeInCrypto Markets data put the largest cryptocurrency at around 68,217 USD at the time of writing, after rising 3.4% over the previous day.
