•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A single on-chain indicator has, for the past decade, repeatedly aligned with major Bitcoin cycle bottoms. The setup uses a monthly Bitcoin chart paired with the NUPL indicator, which tracks whether the average holder is sitting on unrealized profit or loss. When the reading is high, the market holds large unrealized gains; when it falls sharply, those gains fade and losses dominate.
The monthly candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin’s major cycle lows have formed when NUPL resets into deep territory and then tags a long-term ascending support line. This pattern appeared at the 2015 cycle bottom, repeated at the 2018 bear market low, and showed up again around the 2022 bottom. In each case, the touches occurred after sentiment had already been crushed and after Bitcoin had shed most of its prior gains.
The current NUPL reading is 22.9. That level suggests Bitcoin remains in modest aggregate profit, even though it has given back a large portion of the gains accumulated during the rally to the October 2025 peak above $126,000.
Crypto analyst CrypFlow, posting on X, said the NUPL indicator is now approaching the level seen at prior Bitcoin bottoms. If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin may still need another deeper reset in sentiment before a true long-term washout occurs.
While price may have already corrected significantly, the indicator suggests the emotional capitulation seen at earlier bottoms may not be complete. NUPL could continue moving lower and reach the trendline before a bottom is confirmed.
The article also notes that no single indicator can call every bottom with perfect precision, leaving open the possibility of one final price crash before the next full cycle expansion begins.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $74,220, up by 1.3% over the past 24 hours.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
