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Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has retraced into a long-term demand zone between $440 and $470. The area sits just below the midpoint of the two-year trading range for BCH, and a test of this demand zone could potentially trigger a bullish trend shift. However, broader market conditions remain a key constraint.
Despite a bounce in Bitcoin (BTC), sentiment across the market was described as bearish. The BTC rebound was characterized as likely temporary, even though it was strong enough to defend the $70,000 psychological support level.
Bitcoin also faced renewed accusations of being a “Ponzi scheme,” while the wider market was dealing with political uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions. In this environment, BCH bulls may find it difficult to sustain a recovery.
Supply distribution data indicated that the retail sector was not accumulating BCH. In 2026, only the 100–1,000 BCH holding cohort was actively adding funds, though the cohort’s size may not be sufficient on its own.
During 2026, the 1,000–100,000 BCH holding group has been gradually selling. Holders of 1–100 BCH have also been selling. By contrast, whales with more than 100,000 BCH were the only group adding to their positions.
The analysis used 90-day and 365-day Mean Coin Ages to assess whether network-wide accumulation was underway. The 3-month holder coin age showed a steady uptrend since December, which was presented as a positive development.
At the same time, the 90-day MVRV value was reported as the lowest since October 2025. The October 2025 period followed a 10/10 crash that left holders—particularly short-term holders—facing sizeable losses.
BCH rebounded from the $470 support zone, and the report noted similarities between current price levels and October’s MVRV conditions.
However, the 365-day Mean Coin Age provided a different picture. It highlighted waves of selling since October, and after December, accumulation was described as erratic rather than consistent. This pattern could contribute to short-term price volatility and was said to be less supportive of a long-term recovery thesis.
The 1-day structure and momentum, based on moving averages, were both characterized as bearish. At press time, the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) had fallen to -0.25, signaling heavy capital outflow from BCH.
With the 365-day Mean Coin Age also pointing to selling pressure, the combined signals were described as warning investors of a deeper price drop. The 90-day MVRV being at multi-month lows was noted as a factor that could reduce profit-taking pressure.
Still, if BTC falls below $70,000 and $66,000 again, BCH could quickly lose the $440 support level.
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