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Ark Invest forecasts that Bitcoin’s market capitalization could reach $16 trillion by 2030, citing rising institutional demand and broader global adoption trends.
Ark Invest says institutional investors are increasing exposure to Bitcoin through financial vehicles and treasury allocations. The report estimates that U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and public companies held about 12% of the Bitcoin supply last year, up from 9% earlier. Ark Invest frames this as a shift in perception, moving Bitcoin from a speculative asset toward a portfolio component.
The firm estimates that a 2.5% allocation from global portfolios could add about $5 trillion to Bitcoin’s valuation. It bases the calculation on a $200 trillion global asset pool excluding gold. Ark Invest also describes Bitcoin as “maturing as the leader of a new institutional asset class.”
Ark Invest forecasts that Bitcoin could exceed $730,000 per coin if total supply approaches 21 million units by 2030. The firm links the projection to demand growth and limited supply dynamics, and estimates a compound annual growth rate near 63% over the period.
It also estimates that Bitcoin could capture around 40% of gold’s market value, which it places at above $24 trillion. On that basis, Ark Invest suggests nearly $10 trillion in additional valuation potential tied to the “digital gold” narrative. The firm also reiterates earlier projections of a $300,000 to $1.5 million price range by 2030.
Beyond Bitcoin, Ark Invest expects the total digital asset market to expand from about $2.7 trillion to $28 trillion by the end of the decade. The firm attributes the growth to increased adoption and integration into financial systems, along with expanding use cases for digital assets in global markets.
Ark Invest also highlights demand for a neutral reserve asset, estimating it could add about $339 billion with 0.5% penetration of a $68 trillion monetary base. It points to allocations from nation-states and corporate treasuries as additional contributors to valuation growth, while reiterating that institutional demand remains central to its long-term projections.
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