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After months of subdued activity, Bitcoin posted its first monthly close in nine months in April, with inflows reaching $275 billion—the highest level since August 2025. Despite the surge, questions remain about whether the rally can sustain itself, as early bullish signals have not yet translated into confirmed demand strength.
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin has gained roughly 30% since February, indicating a clear recovery in price. However, underlying demand conditions have not yet provided confirmation that a full bull cycle has begun.
This assessment is based on the Bitcoin Apparent Demand Growth metric, which evaluates whether the market is experiencing sustained accumulation by measuring the gap between newly issued Bitcoin and the portion of supply that remains inactive.
The gap remains negative at approximately 44,700 BTC, signaling that demand has yet to absorb new supply. Until this metric turns positive, claims of a confirmed bull run are considered premature.
That said, the trend is improving: the deficit narrowed from around 89,000 BTC at the start of April, suggesting accumulation is gradually increasing. For a durable bullish trend, sustained positive readings from the metric would be needed.
Short-term market dynamics are beginning to shift. The Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta indicates that buyers have dominated spot activity for four consecutive days.
This taker-buy pressure suggests growing conviction among market participants and a shift in control toward buyers.
Exchange flow data supports the same direction. Bitcoin’s spot netflow has remained negative, with approximately 1,995 BTC accumulated between May 1 and the time of writing—equivalent to roughly $157 million.
If the pattern continues, continued accumulation alongside buyer dominance could help support a more stable upward move as bullish momentum builds.
Volume metrics also point to improving conditions. Bitcoin trading volume has risen to $32.94 billion while prices hold firm, a combination that often precedes stronger directional moves.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility has declined, retreating toward the 40th percentile. Historically, similar levels have coincided with periods of institutional positioning and subsequent price expansion.
Senior analyst James Van Straten noted that prior drops in implied volatility to comparable levels preceded major market events, including the October 2023 liquidation-driven move and the broader rally that followed ahead of the spot ETF surge.
“Volume tends to expand, with price rising alongside it. Volume doesn’t stay this low for long,” he said.
Overall, while structural demand remains unconfirmed, improving accumulation trends, sustained buyer dominance, and declining volatility point to early stages of a potentially stronger market move in the weeks ahead.

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