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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to trade above $100,000 by the end of 2026. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference in Las Vegas, he said BTC could reach around $125,000 by year-end 2026, just below its previous record high of $126,000.
Hayes attributed Bitcoin’s recent pullback to a credit contraction linked to AI-related job losses. He said the resulting pressure on consumer spending and tighter financial conditions weighed on risk assets.
However, he argued that market sentiment has shifted since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in February. In his view, concerns have moved away from an AI slowdown toward expectations of wartime inflation, which has helped Bitcoin outperform the Nasdaq.
He added that wartime inflation typically increases demand for hard assets such as Bitcoin, as investors seek a hedge against currency debasement—supporting a rebound.
Hayes also downplayed the impact of a hawkish Federal Reserve, saying tightening has a limited effect on real liquidity. Instead, he pointed to changes in April to bank rules, including adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR), which he said could unlock about $1.3 trillion in lending.
Combined with increased defense spending, Hayes argued this liquidity could offset AI-driven weakness and support risk assets, including Bitcoin.
While the Las Vegas forecast reflects Hayes’ latest near-term outlook, he has previously shared a wider set of projections for 2026. In some appearances, he cited a year-end target of $145,000, attributing it to expansion in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and increased bank-driven money creation.
In more aggressive interviews, Hayes outlined a $500,000 target by the end of 2026, assuming stronger central bank liquidity. Earlier in the year, he maintained a base case of $250,000, while warning that Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 before advancing.
For the broader cycle into 2026 and 2027, he projected a range between $500,000 and $750,000.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $76,343, down 1.6% on the day, but up 0.5% on the weekly timeframe.
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