Bitcoin Could Reach $110,000 as Strategy Absorbs Nearly Three Times the New BTC Supply

Bitcoin’s technical setup is facing pressure from unusually strong spot demand, as Strategy has been buying BTC at a pace that exceeds newly mined supply over the past month.

While Bitcoin has been trading within a bear flag pattern that typically points to a breakdown toward the sub-$50,000 area—about 30% below current levels—Strategy’s continued purchases could undermine the bearish continuation signal.

Strategy’s BTC buying outpaces new supply

Since March 2, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have increased by 46,233 BTC, while miners have produced only about 16,200 BTC over the same period. That implies Strategy has absorbed nearly three times the amount of new supply.

Much of this demand has been linked to Strategy’s variable-rate preferred stock, STRC. When STRC traded near or above its $100 par value, Strategy continued issuing shares and accumulating BTC.

Recent STRC sales and market reaction

Last week, Strategy raised $102.6 million through STRC sales to fund a Bitcoin purchase worth over $330 million. After that, Bitcoin’s price rose by more than 6.65%.

During March 9–13, STRC sales totaled about $776 million, which the article says was enough to buy over 11,000 BTC. Over the same window, Bitcoin rose more than 7% even as the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, and BTC’s price also increased by more than 10.5% during the period.

Issuance slowed when STRC slipped below par

When STRC fell below par in mid-March, the article notes that issuance slowed. It also points to earlier below-par episodes that coincided with 25%–40% BTC pullbacks, including a nearly 40% decline over three weeks after a January pause.

What could invalidate the bear flag

Bitcoin remains inside the bear flag after a sharp decline, but the pattern would begin to fail if price breaks above the upper trendline near the mid-$70,000 area. Such a move would invalidate the immediate bearish continuation setup and shift attention to a bullish measured-move target near $108,000–$110,000.

The article also cites a similar pattern failure near Bitcoin’s 2018 bottom, when a rising wedge led to a breakout rather than a breakdown.

200-week moving average as a potential support

Another factor cited in the article is Bitcoin’s proximity to its 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA). It notes that in 2018, Bitcoin bottomed out near this level and later rose by more than 1,975%.

As of 2026, the article says the 200-week SMA has capped Bitcoin’s downside attempts successfully, increasing the odds of a 2018-like bottom formation.