Bitcoin Could Surpass Gold Market, Bitwise Says

The Bitwise thesis gets broader The immediate catalyst was Iran's reported push to charge a toll on certain ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with crypto discussed as part of the payment conversation. Whether that specific policy gains durable traction is almost secondary to the takeaway Bitwise is highlighting: under stress, neutral digital assets can start to look less like speculative tech and more like infrastructure. That matters because Bitcoin's valuation models often rely on the assumption that it captures a slice of the global store-of-value market over time. Hougan has previously estimated that if Bitcoin were to win about 17% of that market over the next decade, it could imply a price around $1 million per coin. The newer twist is that the store-of-value bucket may not be the full story anymore. If Bitcoin can function as a cross-border monetary rail in places facing sanctions risk, payment frictions, capital controls, or political instability, then the comparison set changes. It is no longer just competing with bullion sitting in vaults. It starts competing for a portion of the value handled by offshore dollars, correspondent banking networks, and other mechanisms used to move money across borders when trust is scarce. Price action says traders are listening, cautiously At the time of the source report, Bitcoin was trading around $74,328, essentially flat on the day. That kind of muted move is its own message. Traders did not treat the Bitwise argument as an instant repricing event. Fair enough. Long-duration valuation narratives rarely trigger a one-candle revelation. Still, the market context matters. Bitcoin holding the mid-$74,000 area while geopolitical tension remains elevated suggests the bid is not vanishing. For directional traders, the more relevant question is whether these macro headlines pull in fresh spot demand or simply feed a rotating stack of narratives on crypto Twitter. Without stronger confirmation from on-chain flows, ETF inflows, or derivatives positioning, the "Bitcoin as crisis payment rail" trade remains more thesis than trend. Spot resilience helps, but resilience is not the same as breakout confirmation. Bitcoin Tests $75K as $200M Shorts Face Liquidation The bull case, with fewer rose-tinted glasses Bitwise is effectively arguing that Bitcoin's total addressable market could be larger than most models assume. That is plausible. A scarce digital bearer asset that doubles as a settlement layer does deserve a broader valuation framework than one anchored only to gold. The stronger version of that thesis rests on three things. First, Bitcoin must remain credibly neutral, meaning no single state or bloc can easily dominate or shut it down. Second, users need reliable access points, wallets, exchanges, custody, and local liquidity. Third, counterparties must actually want to receive BTC rather than treat it as an awkward bridge asset they instantly dump. That last part is where a lot of grand narratives get a bit airy. Utility in edge-case geopolitical settings does not automatically translate into persistent monetary demand. If Bitcoin is merely the pipe and not the preferred balance-sheet asset, the valuation uplift may be smaller than maximalists hope. Risks that could rug the thesis The obvious problem is volatility. A treasury manager or shipping intermediary may tolerate many things, but a settlement asset that can swing sharply in a week is a tough sell unless exposure is hedged. Liquidity is deep by crypto standards, yet still uneven across jurisdictions and hours. Regulatory pressure is another constraint. If governments perceive Bitcoin-assisted trade as sanctions evasion or policy leakage, they can tighten surveillance at the exchange, banking, and custody layers. Bitcoin itself may be hard to stop, but the on and off ramps remain vulnerable. Then there is the possibility that this is mostly vibes. Geopolitical headlines often create compelling use-case stories that never scale into sustained adoption. One proposal or isolated corridor experiment does not equal a global monetary transition. What to watch next - Whether Iran or related trade corridors formalize any crypto-linked payment mechanisms - Spot Bitcoin ETF flow data for signs institutions are buying the broader addressable-market story - On-chain transfer volume and large wallet movements tied to cross-border settlement patterns - Derivatives funding and open interest, to see if traders are chasing the thesis or fading it - Regulatory responses around sanctions, shipping payments, and crypto settlement rails Bitcoin Nears $75K as $400M Shorts Get Squeezed Bitwise is not saying Bitcoin has already beaten gold. It is saying the old comparison may be too narrow. If conflict and fragmentation keep exposing the limits of traditional money rails, that argument gets harder to dismiss. If not, Bitcoin may stay where plenty of investors still place it: a volatile digital gold proxy, useful, scarce, and not quite money in the full sense.