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Spacecraft operators are flagging launch access as the single biggest bottleneck, according to Bank of America’s takeaways from the 41st Space Symposium in Colorado Springs. Rather than easing, launch prices are rising, with some buyers planning around roughly 10% annual launch price hikes over the next five years and with certain manifests booked solid two to three years out.
Bank of America’s observations align with pricing moves already visible in the market. In late February, SpaceX raised dedicated Falcon 9 pricing to $74 million from $70 million, while rideshare rates increased to $7,000/kg from $6,000/kg.
Several factors are squeezing the launch market:
Bank of America highlighted how the launch bottleneck is showing up in company metrics. Rocket Lab’s backlog grew 73% year-over-year to $1.85 billion at the end of 2025.
Rocket Lab was described as a potential pure-play beneficiary of the launch bottleneck. Neutron is targeted to undercut Falcon 9 by roughly $15 million per launch, and it is positioned to absorb spillover demand once it certifies. The company also has a vertically integrated spacecraft business, including an $816 million prime contract for 18 satellites, which provides a similar “flywheel” dynamic to SpaceX.
Karman Holdings was also flagged as a “picks-and-shovels” beneficiary. Karman supplies payload fairings, interstage structures, and propulsion systems across hypersonics, missile defense, and space launch. More launches—regardless of which launcher wins—could increase demand for its components.
Intuitive Machines was noted as a launch consumer with secured SpaceX manifest slots through IM-4, which may become more valuable as backlogs lengthen.
AST SpaceMobile faces heightened exposure to the launch bottleneck because its BlueBird constellation depends on New Glenn for upmass. The report noted that Blue Origin’s recent failure could put AST SpaceMobile’s 45 to 60 satellite year-end target at risk.
The launch shortage is expected to pressure the broader industry. For launch providers such as SpaceX and Rocket Lab, and for propulsion suppliers such as Karman, scarcity can translate into pricing power. For constellation operators without their own rockets, the issue is described as both a margin and schedule problem, with the consequences of choosing the wrong launch partner becoming more severe.
Until Neutron, Vulcan at full cadence, and a stabilized New Glenn collectively add meaningful capacity—likely a 2027 story at the earliest—Bank of America expects the squeeze and associated price hikes to continue.
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