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Bitcoin’s weekend rally faded as the token fell about 1% to roughly $66,700 on Monday, retracing most of its bounce after Iran’s leadership change. Broader cryptocurrencies declined alongside bitcoin, while oil prices spiked and global equities slipped as markets reacted to the U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
A brief Sunday rally did not hold after traditional markets reopened and began pricing the U.S.-Iran conflict that crypto had been trading in isolation since Saturday. Bitcoin slid to $66,702 in early Monday trading, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours.
Sunday’s bounce to $68,000 following the Khamenei confirmation has now been mostly unwound, with the market settling back into the mid-$66,000 range that preceded the strikes.
The broader crypto complex was mixed. Ether fell 2.5% to $1,967, solana dropped 4.1% to $84, and XRP lost 3.6% to $1.36. On a weekly basis, solana led losses among major tokens, down 8.1% over seven days.
Traditional markets moved in the direction crypto was anticipating. Brent crude surged as much as 13% at the open before settling around $77.50, still up 6.4%, the biggest jump since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows, is effectively closed, according to Bloomberg. Asian equities dropped 1.4% and U.S. equity futures fell 0.7%. Gold climbed to $5,350 an ounce.
The oil move is the key near-term driver for crypto’s direction. Higher energy prices feed into inflation expectations, which can push back the timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts and tighten liquidity conditions that typically support risk assets.
The situation remains fluid. Conflicting reports emerged Monday about whether Iran is seeking to resume nuclear talks with the U.S. The Wall Street Journal reported a fresh push to negotiate, while Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani said the country won’t negotiate.
Earlier Sunday, Trump said the bombing campaign will continue until objectives are achieved. The Atlantic reported he agreed to talk with Iran’s new leadership.
Despite the pullback, some crypto traders argue downside risk may be limited. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, said: “Given that Iran has been isolated from global financial markets for quite some time, we believe that downside risk is limited.” He added that concerns about oil prices and inflation may be mitigated because “the world has been weaned off Iranian oil and increased supply from OPEC and the U.S. should be enough to stabilize prices.”
Whether that view holds depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens and how long Trump’s “objectives” take to achieve. Until those questions are answered, crypto continues to trade as a risk asset in a world that has just become riskier.
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