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More than $290 million exited Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week as a broad “risk-off” shift continued to weigh on global markets amid rising geopolitical and macro pressures.
Farside Investors data shows cumulative weekly outflows of roughly $296 million between March 24 and March 27, led by heavy redemptions from BlackRock’s IBIT and other major funds.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $290 million last week, with Friday’s $225.5 million outflow marking the heaviest single-day bleed.
BlackRock’s IBIT shed $201.5 million on Friday alone, the largest single-fund outflow of the week. Flows turned negative after the week began with strong inflows of $167.2 million on Monday, when sentiment was more supportive.
Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro, said “risk-off is clearly the mood amongst markets,” pointing to Bitcoin sliding to a three-week low and the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly loss, its longest losing streak since 2022.
Gilbert added that macro pressures are compounding, including concerns that triple-digit oil could fuel inflation fears and push rate cut expectations further out—removing a catalyst that risk assets typically need to stabilize.
Geopolitical risk escalated Monday after President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could “take the oil in Iran” and potentially seize Kharg Island, the country’s major fuel hub.
Gilbert said a ceasefire could trigger a “strong relief rally,” but warned that without credible de-escalation, markets may remain defensive with “more choppy sessions ahead.”
Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Labs, said the “risk-off” tone was the primary driver, while noting the outflow “doesn’t seem that dramatic compared to the recent trends.” He attributed the move to waning ceasefire expectations as peace talks faltered toward the end of the week.
Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, also linked the outflows to “risk-off sentiment and end of quarter rebalancing,” adding that the $290 million figure is “quite normal.”
Kala said Bitcoin’s relative strength against other asset classes remains “notable and very supportive,” while cautioning against reading structural significance into weekly flow data.
He noted that ETF inflows and outflows are not purely directional investment flows, explaining that hedge funds also use basis trading. “Therefore, there are no hard limits or thresholds that would signal a structural change,” Kala said.
Gilbert said Bitcoin had held up relatively well through the conflict and was “a surprising standout despite its risk status as an asset,” but added that ongoing tensions mean it is “in no way immune to this indiscriminate sell-off.”
He also said the market is increasingly pricing in a Fed rate hike, contrasting with the multiple cuts it had been pricing just months earlier, and flagged Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled remarks as a potential additional pressure point.
On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, sentiment is bearish: users are pricing a 56.8% likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 rather than rising to $84,000.
Bitcoin was trading at $67,574, up 1.4% over the last 24 hours, after sliding into the $65,000 range earlier Monday, according to CoinGecko data.
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