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Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $223 million for the eighth consecutive day, while Ethereum ETFs saw a $75.9 million outflow that ended a 10-day inflow streak. On Polymarket, the odds of a Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 stand at 3.1% (YES). The June 30 market is thinly traded, with only $469 in actual USDC moving the price.
Eight straight days of Bitcoin ETF inflows suggest steady institutional buying. However, the low single-digit Polymarket odds indicate traders do not expect that momentum alone to be sufficient to push Bitcoin to a new high before the end of June.
Ethereum’s $75.9 million ETF outflow broke a 10-day inflow streak, described as a bearish signal for Ethereum price action in the April market. That market showed zero trading activity over the past 24 hours as April 30 approaches, implying participants are largely on the sidelines.
The Bitcoin all-time-high market shows $29,669 in face value and $3,090 in actual USDC. The term structure indicates an 8-point jump from June to September, suggesting traders are looking for a mid-year catalyst that could favor Bitcoin, potentially tied to regulatory or macroeconomic developments.
For Ethereum, the $75.9 million outflow is presented as a clear negative. In the April market, a YES share for Ethereum reaching $4,000 by April pays $1, but the current institutional selling is described as making that outcome harder to achieve.
The article points to uncertainty from the geopolitical context of the US-Iran conflict and its potential effects on global markets. It also highlights the need for a quick shift in sentiment if ETF flows reverse or if positive macro signals emerge.
Potential near-term catalysts mentioned include statements from Vitalik Buterin and regulatory announcements that could move sentiment. The next FOMC meeting is also flagged as a possible driver of monetary policy signals relevant to crypto pricing.
For Bitcoin, the most direct catalysts cited are continued ETF inflows and major corporate adoption news.
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