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Bitcoin’s performance has re-emerged in the spotlight as a hedge against geopolitical tensions following the start of the West Asia crisis. Over the period referenced, Bitcoin rose 8.5%, while gold fell 12%, counter to expectations that gold would rally as a safe haven during the conflict.
The divergence has also been notable versus traditional equities. Gold’s decline was about twice that of U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 down 5.6% over the same period.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the roles appear to have reversed, adding that investors should not judge assets over short time frames. He also described both assets as stores of value, while characterizing gold as “zero-correlated to stocks” but an “unreliable hedge.”
“A lot of people were dumping on Bitcoin for not being a safe haven about three months ago, and gold was. Well, the roles have been reversed. I think you shouldn’t judge these assets over weeks or months anyway.”
On Tuesday, March 24, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $167.23 million in daily net inflows, ending a three-day streak of outflows. For March so far, the ETF complex has pulled in $2.5 billion in net inflows and is close to flipping year-to-date (YTD) flows to positive.
By contrast, gold ETFs have recorded outflows of more than $22 billion over the same period.
If Bitcoin’s ETF inflows continue and help reverse gold’s outflows, the crypto asset could gain additional near-term traction. However, the BTC/gold ratio—tracking Bitcoin’s relative performance versus gold—remains within a multi-year range.
In March, Bitcoin outperformed gold by 32%. Still, if a 2022-like crypto “winter” bottom pattern emerges, the BTC/gold ratio could test the low end of its range at 9. That scenario would be consistent with a market cycle bottom being near, but would also imply Bitcoin underperforming gold by an additional +43% before a sustained rebound.
Fidelity’s view, as cited in the source material, is that the $60K level is the likely bottom for the current market cycle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was holding the $68K support level and may target $80K if ETF inflows extend.
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