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Bitcoin is trading above $78,000, but one trader argues the move may mark the top of the current cycle. He points to historical drawdowns that followed Bitcoin’s peaks in May during prior years, suggesting a potential sharp correction from current levels.
Merlijn The Trader shared a chart showing Bitcoin peaked in May three times previously: 2014, 2018, and 2022. After those May highs, Bitcoin fell by approximately 61%, 65%, and 66%, respectively.
Based on that pattern, Merlijn is calling for a decline of roughly 60.73% from current levels. If realized, the projection would place Bitcoin around $33,000.
His approach is summarized as “sell in May and go away,” with no hedge indicated in the argument presented.
Ted Pillows takes a more conditional view, focusing on near-term price levels rather than multi-year cycle behavior. He identifies $75,000 as strong support and argues Bitcoin could rise further if it breaks and holds above the $78,000 to $80,000 resistance zone.
If that resistance is overcome, Pillows expects a move toward a CME gap near $86,000. He also notes that there is limited resistance between $80,000 and the gap, which could allow a faster advance.
On the downside, Pillows warns that failure to break the resistance could send Bitcoin back toward $70,000. If selling intensifies and $70,000 does not hold, he points to a lower support area around $66,318.
The two views converge on the importance of the $78,000 to $80,000 area. Merlijn’s thesis implies a downside move is already set in motion, while Pillows frames the next direction as dependent on whether Bitcoin can hold above $78,000 or whether sellers reassert control at that level.
Both scenarios also hinge on market behavior around these levels, with the expectation that a decisive move could follow soon.
The CME gap near $86,000 is presented as a potential magnet if Bitcoin breaks higher, since gaps often get filled. At the same time, the article notes that gaps can also mark tops, where price may rally to fill the gap and then reverse sharply.
In that context, even a move toward $86,000 would not necessarily invalidate Merlijn’s broader expectation of a larger correction later, according to the framing in the article.
With Bitcoin hovering around $78,000 and volume described as starting to dry up, the article suggests traders are likely monitoring order books closely for confirmation. A sustained move above $80,000 with strong participation would challenge the immediate top call, while rejection and a drop below $75,000 would strengthen the case for a deeper pullback.
Overall, the piece characterizes the market as at a crossroads, with both analysts offering scenarios that depend on how Bitcoin reacts around the $78,000 to $80,000 resistance band.
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