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Bitcoin’s price weakness has returned attention to its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), with analysts warning that the level could act as renewed resistance if the market fails to reclaim it as support.
TradingView data cited in the article showed BTC/USD posting multiday lows of $66,569 over the weekend. The move left the pair below its key 200-day exponential moving average trend line, a level it has repeatedly attempted to reclaim as support.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital said the significance of losing the 200-week EMA—currently at $68,310—would be determined by the weekly close. He noted that Bitcoin had “upside wicked beyond the 200 EMA,” but that the rebound was largely erased.
Rekt Capital added that a weekly candle close below the 200-week EMA would “continue to solidify the EMA as resistance.” The article also referenced that prior to February, BTC/USD last saw a weekly close beneath the trend line in early March 2023.
While the broader tone in the piece leaned cautious, one trader, Merlijn, argued that Bitcoin could repeat its 2023 structure. The article said that in 2023 the 200-week EMA acted as a “launchpad” for a major upside move after price reclaimed the level, retested it, and then moved higher.
Merlijn’s view, as presented in the article, was that Bitcoin is again testing a similar structure near the $65,000 area, with continuation contingent on holding the level and a different outcome if it is lost.
The article linked Bitcoin’s near-term volatility to macro developments, pointing to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the focus on commodities and safe havens ahead of the TradFi trading week.
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said gold and oil performance could be directly tied to Bitcoin’s chances of a rebound. He wrote that if oil and gold move in favor of Bitcoin, the market could return to prior highs in the coming week and that “the worst is behind us.” He also said that if those conditions do not hold, he would look to buy in the $60,000 areas if lows are retested.
The article cited market moves from Friday: WTI crude oil ended the day up nearly 16%, while gold was described as trading below the $5,200 mark after a failed attempt to challenge all-time highs.
Van de Poppe also pointed to record low relative strength index (RSI) readings in a BTC-versus-gold valuation context. He said the valuation of BTC versus gold had not changed and characterized Bitcoin as undervalued versus the precious metal in the short term, while gold was overvalued in the short term.
The article included a chart reference for XAU/USD on a one-day timeframe, sourced to Cointelegraph/TradingView.
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