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Stablecoin dominance, measured as the combined share of USDT and USDC, rose sharply from 8.5% to 12.5% after sweeping prior highs, a move that aligns with a pattern described by analyst Cowen two months earlier when Bitcoin was trading above $90,000.
Cowen said the current pullback in stablecoin dominance resembles similar setups seen in other markets over the past four years, including Bitcoin dominance, palladium, and the Hang Seng Index.
“When I look at stablecoin dominance, I would have to say objectively, it’s hard to say that this won’t just be a higher low,” Cowen said.
“If it takes out the low, then I’m wrong. But for now, this simply looks like what we’ve previously seen in other markets that exhibited a very similar pattern,” he added.
The described sequence is: an asset sets a high, sells off, sets another high, sells off again but forms a higher low, and then breaks through prior highs convincingly. Cowen also suggested that a final pullback can lead market participants to interpret the move as a fakeout before the trend resumes higher from a bull-market support band.
The analysis ties the stablecoin dominance structure to Bitcoin’s historical behavior. Bitcoin reportedly found a low in February 2026 that was described as identical to February lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After that low, Bitcoin rallied into March, was rejected at the bull-market support band, formed a lower high, and then sold off into summer.
The comparison also references 2022 and 2026:
Cowen further noted that Bitcoin “topped to within plus or minus one week of the last two market cycle tops in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year,” and that Bitcoin “found a low in February, which is when it always finds a low in bear markets.”
The 2018 comparison is described as particularly close. Bitcoin reportedly found a low at $6,000, mirroring a low at $60,000 in the current cycle. It then rallied to the bull-market support band in March and formed a lower high.
The bull-market support band is cited at $83,000. The analysis states that as long as Bitcoin trades below that level, “nothing has changed technically,” maintaining a “lower high structure,” which is presented as analogous to stablecoin dominance maintaining a “higher low structure.”
The article also highlights relative underperformance for Bitcoin year-to-date in 2026. It states that Bitcoin is down against every major asset class mentioned, including:
It adds that Bitcoin’s “gold valuation” swept prior highs and is expected to oscillate back down toward the lows, potentially implying another 30% decline, though the article frames this as part of the observed pattern rather than a confirmed outcome.
The discussion concludes by linking the stablecoin dominance framework to the ETH-Bitcoin market cap ratio, which Cowen previously called as topping in 2022 and bottoming in April 2025.
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