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An analyst says Bitcoin has historically tended to form market bottoms within the 1.0 to 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands, an on-chain framework tied to the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio.
In a post on X, analyst Ali Martinez discussed historical Bitcoin bottoms using the MVRV Pricing Bands, which map key MVRV ratio levels to corresponding BTC price ranges.
The MVRV Ratio compares Bitcoin’s market value (market cap) to its realized value (realized cap), a proxy for the total capital invested into the asset. In effect, it reflects the profit-and-loss balance of BTC holders as a whole.
As investor profits rise, profit-taking becomes more likely, which can coincide with market tops when the MVRV ratio moves well above 1.0. Conversely, selling can become more exhausted when most of the supply is underwater, making bottoms more probable at lower MVRV levels.
According to the on-chain model referenced by Martinez, Bitcoin is currently trading below two higher MVRV bands.
The chart shows BTC has been below the 2.4 and 3.2 bands for a while. These thresholds are described as being around $130,000 and $174,000, respectively, levels where profit-realization risk is considered significant.
Despite recent bearish momentum, the price has remained above the 1.0 level, which Martinez interprets as investors still being in a net unrealized gain position overall.
Martinez pointed to a recurring pattern: “Over the past decade, Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands.”
In the chart, these bands are shown near $54,000 for the 1.0 level and $43,000 for the 0.8 level.
The analyst’s view leaves open whether BTC will continue lower and retest the historical bottoming zone, or whether it will form a low before reaching that range and break from prior-cycle behavior.
The article notes one deviation already observed this time: Bitcoin has not been able to breach the 3.2 level a single time.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $73,000, up more than 6% over the past week.
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