Bitcoin hits $70,200 before retreating toward $68,000 as Iran rejects ceasefire and sets 8 PM ET deadline; ETH, SOL, and XRP fall 2-4%

Bitcoin fell to around $68,228 on Tuesday morning after Monday’s brief move toward $70,200, as Iran formally rejected a US-backed 45-day ceasefire proposal and President Donald Trump confirmed an 8 PM ET strike deadline would remain in force. The broader crypto market cap dropped about 2% to $2.42 trillion as traders took a more defensive stance into the evening.

Prices across major cryptocurrencies

• Ethereum: down 2.9% to $2,090
• Solana: down 3.8% to $79.44
• XRP: down 3.3% to $1.31

The selloff follows a repeated pattern seen over the past six weeks of the conflict: de-escalation headlines trigger rallies, but when Iran rejects the terms, the gains are largely erased within hours.

ETF flows provide a counter-signal

One data point running against the bearish tone is spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. Bloomberg reported that Monday’s $471 million in inflows were the sixth-largest single-day total of 2026 and the highest since late February.

Binance Research also found that Bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index—tracking 41 central banks—turned strongly negative after the launch of spot ETFs. The implication cited is that institutional investors are treating dips as accumulation opportunities, even when short-term price action appears driven by geopolitics.

Two scenarios traders are pricing

As described by crypto.news, a confirmed agreement later tonight could support a move toward $75,000, while failure to reach a deal could shift attention back to downside levels. The key support zone cited is $66,500, and below that, a negative gamma setup flagged by Glassnode is described as leaving BTC exposed to a faster move toward $60,000.

“This move looks less like a shift in fundamentals and more like positioning getting caught offsides,” said Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX. “Heading into the weekend, sentiment was heavily skewed bearish and short interest had built up across the market. Once ceasefire headlines hit, that positioning had to unwind.”

Range remains intact unless conditions change

Bitcoin has been trading within a six-week range of $65,000 to $73,000 during the Iran conflict. The article notes that breaking above the range would likely require either a genuine ceasefire or a significant improvement in the macro backdrop—neither of which is viewed as imminent at the time of writing.

Fed and oil dynamics add to the uncertainty

Oil trading above $111 per barrel is cited as keeping inflation expectations elevated, which limits the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates. The market is described as pricing in little near-term Fed movement. In this context, Bitcoin is portrayed as caught between institutional accumulation demand via ETF flows and a macro backdrop that keeps capital defensive.

The article also highlights the Strait of Hormuz situation as the most important variable. It frames tonight’s 8 PM ET deadline as the clearest binary event Bitcoin has faced since the war began.