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Bitcoin extended its gains over the weekend and carried bullish momentum into Monday as the Middle East conflict entered its third week. The leading cryptocurrency rose to 74,157 USD in early Asian trading, according to CoinGecko data, and was trading around 73,978 USD at the time of publication—up 3.1% on the day and 9.1% for the week.
Bitcoin’s rise has unfolded alongside escalating geopolitical tensions tied to the U.S.-Iran war. U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with the Financial Times that it would be “very bad for the future of NATO” if allies do not help secure the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the U.S. would help “A LOT!” after a Sunday post on TruthSocial urged countries receiving oil through the strait to ensure passage.
In the broader markets, uncertainty has supported crude oil, which has climbed steadily to 99.25 USD per barrel, up nearly 28% from the March 9 low, though still below last week’s 119.48 high. Gold, typically viewed as a safe haven during geopolitical stress, was down roughly 7% since the conflict began on February 28.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at crypto operator HashKey Group, said Bitcoin’s ascent is not driven by the war itself, but by its macroeconomic consequences. He pointed to a combination of high oil prices, weak growth, and deficit expansion, arguing that future U.S. fiscal pressure could increase and eventually feed back into liquidity concerns.
Sun also cited market positioning. He said selling pressure from short-term emotional speculators appears to be exhausted, leaving the market increasingly influenced by medium-to-long-term holders.
Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, said a measure of long-dormant Bitcoin movement—Bitcoin Days Destroyed—fell to its lowest level in nearly three years. In his view, this suggests holders with the strongest conviction have largely held their coins rather than selling.
Experts also pointed to stabilization in exchange-traded fund inflows over three consecutive weeks as part of the recovery dynamic, alongside short-term seller exhaustion and long-term holder conviction.
Options data highlighted potential upside dynamics. Glassnode, in a Monday Telegram post, noted a large pocket of negative gamma near the 75,000 USD strike. The firm said this level is associated with a concentration of call options held by institutional market makers, who can be forced to buy Bitcoin if the price moves above that point—potentially amplifying upward moves as the market approaches the strike.
On prediction market Myriad, users—owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—assigned a 55% chance that crypto markets will rally this spring.
Sun cautioned that while Bitcoin functions as a sovereign, globally liquid asset independent of traditional financial intermediaries, “in extreme scenarios” the structure of the rally is not entirely healthy. He added that as the Middle East conflict continues, Bitcoin is likely to behave in a similar manner due to the need for an alternative cross-border asset that can operate outside the traditional financial system.
Experts also emphasized that investors should pay close attention to March’s FOMC meeting and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance on the macroeconomic outlook.
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