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Bitcoin’s price touched $76,466 on April 20, testing the upper boundary of a four-hour ascending channel that has been in play since February lows. However, the MACD has flipped bearish, leaving traders to reassess what comes next.
Bitcoin has been climbing within the channel for months, a structure traders often use to identify support and resistance. The upper edge of the channel sits around $77,500, where Bitcoin is currently pressing.
While ascending channels are generally viewed as bullish—reflecting buyers willing to pay higher prices over time—the momentum picture has deteriorated. The MACD crossover turned bearish, a signal commonly interpreted as declining momentum. In this setup, it suggests the upward push may be losing strength and that a reversal could be developing.
The bearish MACD crossover typically signals increasing selling pressure, as the MACD line crosses below the signal line. Traders are now weighing whether Bitcoin can still break through resistance at roughly $77,500 despite the warning.
Without a clean break above $77,500, the bearish signal could carry more weight. In that case, Bitcoin may slide back toward the lower boundary of the channel, potentially erasing part of the recent advance.
With Bitcoin near $76,466, market participants are waiting for a decisive move. The key question is whether price can punch through resistance and confirm the bullish channel—or whether the MACD’s bearish warning leads to a pullback.
Analysts are focused on how Bitcoin behaves at the channel’s upper boundary over the coming days. A failure to break above could validate the bearish momentum signal and push Bitcoin toward the middle or lower edge of the channel, where support sits. Conversely, stronger buying pressure could allow Bitcoin to break cleanly above $77,500, potentially turning the bearish crossover into a false alarm.
Traders are watching for confirmation on the four-hour chart. A close above $77,500 would be interpreted as bullish, while a rejection followed by a close back inside the channel would support the bearish MACD warning.
Volume is expected to play a central role in determining which scenario gains traction. A breakout attempt accompanied by strong volume would suggest genuine demand and improve the odds of a sustained move higher. If the attempt fails on weak volume, the bearish signal is more likely to be taken seriously.
For now, Bitcoin is positioned at an inflection point, effectively “on the fence” between the channel’s bullish structure and the MACD’s bearish momentum shift. The next few sessions are likely to determine whether the recent strength continues or whether a retreat follows.
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