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Bitcoin has risen about 7% from Sunday lows, holding near the $70,000 level even as equities and gold have shown little momentum. Analysts attribute the move to signs of seller exhaustion, a shift in bitcoin’s correlation with gold, and improving spot bitcoin ETF inflows, particularly into BlackRock’s IBIT.
In quiet trade Wednesday, the largest cryptocurrency climbed to just shy of $71,000, up roughly 7% from Sunday evening lows. Over the same period, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were roughly flat, while gold posted only modest gains. Through March so far, bitcoin is the only one of the three assets showing gains.
Bitcoin’s relative strength has persisted despite geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and broader market concerns, including risks ranging from potential oil supply disruptions to stress in private credit markets.
Analysts say bitcoin is showing early signs of breaking away from its tight correlation with software stocks. Over the past five days, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is up 3.75%, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) is down 2.45%.
That divergence is contributing to cautious optimism that the crypto market may be stabilizing after months of declines.
Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, pointed to bitcoin’s muted reaction to fresh geopolitical headlines as one encouraging signal. While a brief wave of optimism earlier in the week lifted equities and crypto alongside softer oil prices, that optimism faded later and risk assets gave back some gains.
Barthere said bitcoin’s downside sensitivity has been relatively limited compared with traditional benchmarks such as the Euro Stoxx index, which fell more sharply during the same period. She added that this resilience suggests the marginal seller in bitcoin may be less aggressive than in equities.
Another development drawing attention is bitcoin’s changing relationship with gold. Bryan Tan, a trader at crypto firm Wintermute, said the BTC–gold correlation has flipped positive, moving to +0.16 from -0.49 a week earlier.
Tan noted that during the initial phase of the Middle East conflict, bitcoin fell while gold rallied in a typical risk-off pattern. More recently, both assets have risen together alongside a weakening U.S. dollar, suggesting investors may be treating them as beneficiaries of dollar softness rather than as opposing risk trades.
If the correlation continues to trend positively, Tan said it would shift the framing of bitcoin in a conflict environment from “sell the risk asset” to a more nuanced view.
Improving spot bitcoin ETF flows may also be supporting the recent strength. Bitcoin ETF flows had been trending negative for months after the October peak, but data from the past two weeks shows a notable improvement, according to Joe Edwards, head of research at Enigma.
Edwards highlighted consistent inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest of the bitcoin ETFs. He said a sustained recovery in ETF demand could be critical for bitcoin, given that many analysts view the next phase of growth as dependent on access to deeper institutional capital pools, including ETF investors holding through brokerage accounts.
SoSoValue data cited by Edwards shows IBIT has attracted nearly $1 billion in fresh inflows so far in March, after losing more than $3 billion between November and February. If the trend holds through the coming weeks, Edwards said it could support a broader bitcoin recovery into the second quarter.
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