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Bitcoin traded around $78,000 on Friday as oil prices surged above $100 a barrel following President Donald Trump’s renewed comments about the Strait of Hormuz. Traders said the language raised concerns about disruptions to a route that historically handled about 20 million barrels of oil per day.
Brent crude rose to roughly $107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $97. The move marked a weekly gain of more than 17%. The rally was attributed to a combination of stalled peace talks, tanker seizures, and Trump threatening to target Iranian vessels if they interfere with shipping.
Bitcoin did not show panic selling. It was quoted around $78,300, leaving its April bounce at about 15%.
U.S. stocks slipped and the dollar strengthened, while traders recalculated inflation risks ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. The Strait of Hormuz situation added to uncertainty, with Iran seeking passage authority and the U.S. aiming to restrict Iranian trade. As shipping through the strait slowed, traders said the outlook worsened after Trump’s latest remarks.
Rapid oil gains can change the inflation outlook and increase pressure on the Fed. When the Fed faces heightened inflation-related pressure, risk assets can become more volatile. Bitcoin has been testing whether it can hold up as an inflation hedge while macro conditions tighten.
Futures were cited as a key driver of Thursday’s price action. CryptoQuant data showed Bitcoin rising from $76,351 to $79,447, with the move attributed more to futures activity than spot buying.
Analysts said the liquidation figures suggest the rally was partly mechanical, consistent with a short squeeze.
The options market did not appear to chase the rally aggressively. Greeks.live data showed 109,000 Bitcoin options expired Friday, with a put-call ratio of 0.93 and “max pain” at $72,000. Notional value was around $8.55 billion.
Implied volatility fell across major maturities, and skew metrics remained balanced. That indicated neither panic buying nor aggressive positioning for a large directional move. The options market was described as pricing in the possibility that oil continues rising, the dollar stays firm, and the Fed keeps rates higher for longer.
Bitcoin would need to clear $80,000 to convince traders that demand is broad-based rather than short-term positioning. Resistance at $80,000 has been tested before, and a break above it would be viewed as a sign that spot buyers are supporting the move. If Bitcoin fails to break through, traders said it could remain vulnerable to the same macro pressures that weighed on it earlier.
Implied volatility fell by 1 to 2 percentage points across several tenors, dropping below 40% in some cases. Skew stayed balanced, suggesting traders were not heavily loading either downside protection or upside exposure.
Oil remains the main wildcard. If Hormuz-related tensions keep oil prices elevated, inflation expectations could rise and complicate the Fed’s stance. A stronger dollar and higher yields could also reduce demand for Bitcoin from international buyers and shift capital toward safer assets.
Spot demand is described as the missing element. While futures can move prices in the short term, the rally may stall without spot buyers stepping in. Traders said they were watching for whether institutions, retail, or large holders begin accumulating at current levels, noting that activity had been quiet so far.
Bitcoin’s April recovery is roughly 15%, but holding near $78,000 and breaking above $80,000 are different tests. With leverage elevated, liquidations occurring, and volatility subdued, traders said the next direction could depend on developments in oil, the dollar, and whether spot demand returns.
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