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On the surface, the crypto market appears strong. Despite ongoing global tensions, Bitcoin has behaved like a safe-haven asset, with steady price action supporting confidence. However, beneath that strength, on-chain data points to an unusual shift in how long-term holders are behaving.
Data from Alphractal indicated that while new retail and institutional capital is actively trading, coins held for more than three years have almost stopped moving. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric has fallen to historic lows, including on a 90-day average, suggesting long-term holders are neither selling nor reacting to market swings.
The article characterizes this phase as supply exhaustion rather than hesitation.
Additional metrics point to a change around late November. The Age Consumed metric showed older holders were quiet, but that calm broke sharply as prices surged toward local highs in late November.
At the same time, the 90-day Dormant Circulation spiked sharply, indicating that long-term holders used the rally to exit. Glassnode data is cited as confirming that since December 2025, the 90-day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD-90) has dropped to very low levels.
As price drifted toward the $70,000 region in February 2026, the article notes a divergence: price was weakening, but CDD-90 was not rising.
Normally, older holders tend to react during stress. In this case, the article says they are not. That suggests most large-scale selling may have already occurred in November, with remaining holders staying committed and inactive.
However, the piece also cautions that low CDD-90 is not automatically bullish. If long-term holders are not selling, they are also not providing strong buy-side support through active participation.
Despite the on-chain signals, retail sentiment around Bitcoin is described as intact. Aditya Singhania, identified as an Ex JP Morgan employee, is quoted saying: “There is absolutely zero panic in Bitcoin! Every one is in panic and expecting major fall tomorrow. Market might positively surprise most people. If there was real panic it would have been first seen in crypto market.”
The article also references a contrasting view from Peter Schiff, described as a long-time Bitcoin critic, though no additional quote is provided in the text.
Historically, the article says Bitcoin often finds a bottom near its Long-Term Holder (LTH) cost basis, cited at around $38,900. With price still roughly 66% above that level, it argues the market has not seen the deep reset typical of past bear cycles.
It adds that current selling appears driven mainly by short-term holders, while long-term investors remain steady—pressure without panic.
Separately, the article cites whale activity tracked by Lookonchain: an early whale sold 500 BTC worth about $47.77 million from a 5,000 BTC stash bought near $332 years ago.
The article concludes that Bitcoin in 2026 is behaving like “two markets at once.” Long-term holders remain inactive and unmoved by volatility, while early whales are gradually converting paper gains into realized value. Overall, it suggests the most likely outcome is a long period of sideways movement rather than a dramatic crash or breakout, unless global economic conditions worsen sharply.
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