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Bitcoin’s path to a potential market bottom may be nearing, with the timing depending on whether the asset is measured against gold or the U.S. dollar, according to an analysis by Mercado Bitcoin’s head of research, Rony Szuster.
Historically, bitcoin bear markets have lasted 12 to 13 months. If the current cycle is measured in U.S. dollar terms, Szuster said the downturn could extend into late 2026.
In dollar terms, the most recent peak occurred in October 2025 at about $126,000. Applying the same 12- to 13-month pattern would imply a bearish period continuing through late 2026.
However, when priced in gold, the timeline shifts. Bitcoin reached its high against gold in January 2025. Using the same 12- to 13-month framework, Szuster estimated a potential bottom around February 2026, with a recovery possibly beginning in March.
Szuster attributed bitcoin’s relative weakness versus gold to broader macro conditions and capital rotation into bullion.
Since the start of Donald Trump’s new mandate, markets have faced aggressive trade tariffs, domestic institutional disputes in the U.S., and rising tensions with China and Iran. Tensions with Iran have resulted in ongoing military conflict.
Global uncertainty, measured via the World Uncertainty Index, has surged. In response, gold has benefited, rising more than 80% over the past year to $5,280. Mercado Bitcoin’s analyst said this shift helped bitcoin weaken against gold sooner than it did against the dollar.
Exchange-traded funds have also contributed to bitcoin’s pressure. Since November, about $7.8 billion has flowed out of spot bitcoin ETFs, representing roughly 12% of the $61.6 billion total.
Szuster said the sell-off reflects only part of the market picture. He noted that large-scale investors, or “whales,” are treating the downturn as an accumulation zone. The report cited Abu Dhabi investment firms Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments as adding to spot bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February.
Szuster advised investors to build positions “intelligently” and use a dollar-cost averaging approach to reduce timing risk amid market fear.
“Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria,” he wrote. “Does this mean it's already the bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”
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