Bitcoin market splits in two as mandated buyers absorb selling amid the war

Six weeks of war have split the bitcoin market into two camps: institutional buyers that keep accumulating regardless of conditions, and other participants that are leaving. The market has looked stable on the surface, with bitcoin trading in a $65,000 to $73,000 range through five weeks of conflict headlines, roughly $600 million in liquidation events, and sentiment readings at their worst since the 2022 bear market. But the underlying behavior is narrowing in ways that could shape what comes next.

The mandated buyers

Three entities account for nearly all of the sustained buying pressure in the bitcoin market right now. Their purchases are driven by business models rather than discretionary bets on price.

Strategy’s continued accumulation

Strategy disclosed its latest purchase on April 5, adding 4,871 BTC for approximately $329.9 million at an average of $67,718 per coin. Total holdings now stand at 766,970 BTC acquired for $58.02 billion, with a blended cost basis of $75,644. At current prices, the position is down by roughly 8%, but Strategy continues buying below its average cost, lowering its breakeven with each purchase.

A CoinDesk report indicated Strategy’s 30-day accumulation was steady at approximately 44,000 BTC through March. Strategy’s STRC preferred equity product has also provided capital for continued buying, with hundreds of millions in new inflows around its recent ex-dividend date. If STRC inflows slow, the bid would likely slow as well.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs: steady in aggregate, concentrated in practice

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed approximately 50,000 BTC in March’s 30-day rolling window, the highest monthly pace since October 2025. However, weekly data suggests a less uniformly bullish picture across the broader ETF complex.

CoinShares reported $22 million in U.S. spot ETF inflows last week out of $107 million in total bitcoin ETP flows globally. Most flows came from one country: Swiss-listed products pulled in $157 million alone, representing 70% of the global ETP inflow of $224 million. The institutional channel remains open, but the flow is highly concentrated and slowing on a weekly basis.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies on the ETH side

While primarily an ether play, Bitmine Immersion Technologies reflects a similar structural dynamic on the ETH side. The company bought 71,252 ETH last week—its largest single-week purchase since December 2025—and now holds 4.8 million tokens worth roughly $10 billion.

The discretionary sellers

Participants with a choice appear to be running for the exit.

Whales shift from buyers to sellers

Whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have turned from the market’s largest buyers into its largest sellers. The one-year change in whale holdings swung from roughly positive 200,000 BTC at the 2024 bull market peak to negative 188,000 BTC, a nearly 400,000 BTC reversal. CryptoQuant described this as one of the most aggressive large-holder distribution cycles on record. The 365-day moving average continues to decline, indicating the selling is structural rather than tied to a single event.

Mid-tier holders slow accumulation

Wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC are still technically accumulating, but the pace has collapsed by more than 60% since October 2025—from nearly 1 million BTC in annual additions to 429,000. While they have not flipped to selling yet, the trajectory points in that direction.

Miners liquidate treasuries and pivot capacity

Listed bitcoin miners have been liquidating treasury holdings. Riot Platforms, MARA Holdings, and Genius Group disclosed selling more than 19,000 BTC from their treasuries in a single week earlier this month.

Some miners are also facing operational strains as bitcoin trades near $70,000, difficulty reaches all-time highs, and energy costs rise. Core Scientific, Iris Energy, and Hut 8 have been pivoting capacity to AI hosting, where contracted revenue replaces the volatility of mining income.

Sovereign selling: Bhutan reduces its position

Bhutan, the only sovereign nation described as having built a bitcoin position through a hydropower-backed mining operation, has sold 70% of its holdings since October 2024—from roughly 13,000 BTC to 3,954. The kingdom moved another 319.7 BTC to exchange-linked wallets this week. Its last mining inflow exceeding $100,000 was recorded over a year ago, suggesting the operation may have stopped entirely. The article notes that Strategy now buys more bitcoin in a typical week than Bhutan has left.

The sentiment gap

The divergence between what mandated buyers are doing and what the broader market feels is described as historically unusual.

The Fear and Greed Index remained between 8 and 14 for more than a month, the most sustained period in extreme fear territory since the 2022 bottom. It only climbed out of single digits this week after a ceasefire was announced. Santiment data showed five bearish social media posts for every four bullish ones last weekend, the most negative skew since the war began.

Despite that backdrop, ETFs were buying about 50,000 BTC a month, Strategy was buying about 44,000 BTC, and bitcoin did not break below $65,000. The implication is that the floor held because mandated buyers absorbed what discretionary sellers were dumping. The key question is whether that absorption can continue.

What the ceasefire changed—and what it didn’t

The ceasefire announcement on Tuesday triggered the sharpest single-day rally in over a month. Bitcoin surged past $72,000, and $427 million in shorts were liquidated. Open interest in BTC and ETH perpetuals expanded by $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion respectively over 24 hours, with coin-denominated open interest also rising—signaling net new long positions rather than only short liquidations.

The Coinbase Premium turned positive for both bitcoin and ether for the first time since October’s all-time high, reversing months of persistent negative readings. If it holds, this would be the first sign of genuine U.S. buyer re-engagement since the war began.

However, the ceasefire did not change the structural dynamics underneath. Whether the move becomes a sustained trend reversal depends on whether the two-week truce becomes permanent and whether institutional flows that supported the floor through the war can push bitcoin through the $73,000 ceiling, which has rejected rallies since late February.

Bottom line

Across the data, the article concludes that bitcoin’s buyer base has been narrowing for months. The number of entities providing sustained buying pressure can be counted on one hand: Strategy, ETFs, and to a lesser extent Morgan Stanley’s new channel. Everyone else is described as either selling, slowing down, or leaving.